Chiefs’ Playoff Chances in Jeopardy: Missing Postseason Possible

The Kansas City Chiefs are facing a challenging road ahead in their pursuit of playoff glory. With only five games left in the 2025 NFL regular season, the team finds itself in a precarious position regarding their postseason chances. Their remaining schedule includes crucial matchups against the Houston Texans, Los Angeles Chargers, Tennessee Titans, and Denver Broncos, culminating in a season finale against the Las Vegas Raiders at Allegiant Stadium.

Current Playoff Odds

As it stands, the Chiefs have a 44% chance to secure a playoff berth. This figure marks a decline from 57% just a week prior. Additionally, they hold a 5% chance to win the AFC West, down from 12%. Their prospects of earning a first-round bye remain at less than 1%, while their odds to clinch Super Bowl LX have decreased to 3%. This season marks the first time that Kansas City’s likelihood of reaching the playoffs has dipped below a 50% probability.

Factors Affecting Playoff Chances

The team’s playoff hopes can be significantly influenced by the performance of other AFC teams. For example, if the Cincinnati Bengals hadn’t won their recent game against the Baltimore Ravens, the Chiefs’ situation would be even more dire. With the regular season’s final stretch approaching, it’s becoming clear that Kansas City must monitor the outcomes of rival teams closely.

Path to the Playoffs

Winning all five remaining games would nearly guarantee Kansas City’s playoff participation. If they achieve an 11-6 record, there is still a slim chance (about 1%) they could miss out. For the Chiefs to ensure a playoff spot, they need at least one loss from teams like the Jacksonville Jaguars, Indianapolis Colts, or the Chargers and Broncos.

• If Kansas City finishes at 11-6, and other teams also win, their chances drop to a 97% probability of making the postseason.
• A finishing record of 10-7 leaves Kansas City’s playoff odds between 49% and 74%, depending on which teams score wins against them.
• A 9-8 record severely hampers their chances, especially if losses occur against Houston and Denver.

Division Championship Outlook

The probability of winning the AFC West has significantly diminished. Currently, winning all remaining games only provides a 22% chance for the Chiefs to clinch the division title. This scenario requires multiple losses from the Chargers and Broncos in their remaining games.

For Kansas City, the road to the playoffs is fraught with uncertainty. Head coach Andy Reid’s tenure has not seen the team in such a vulnerable position. Quarterback Patrick Mahomes acknowledged the gravity of the situation, asserting the need to win every game to keep playoff aspirations alive.

With critical games on the horizon, the fate of the Chiefs rests in their ability to perform under pressure while hoping for favorable outcomes from other competitors in the league.