Maple Leafs vs. Panthers Tonight: Start Time, Probable Lines, Recent History, and a Score Prediction

The Toronto Maple Leafs visit the Florida Panthers tonight in Sunrise at 7:30 p.m. ET—their first meeting since last spring’s second-round series. Both teams are hovering around .500 and need points; Toronto is 11-11-3, Florida 12-11-1 entering Game 26 of the season.

Why this matchup matters now

For Toronto, this is a measuring stick and a tone-setter for a tough road stretch. For Florida, it’s a chance to steady home form and bank divisional points while reintegrating pieces up front. The playoff backdrop still lingers: the Panthers dominated key moments in that series, and the Leafs have talked openly about using that exit as fuel.

Projected Maple Leafs look

Toronto’s top six should feature Auston Matthews centering Matthew Knies on the left with a right wing who can toggle between forecheck and finish—Max Domi has slid into that spot of late. The second line reunites John Tavares with William Nylander, with a young winger providing pace and retrievals. The depth group has leaned on Nicolas Roy and Bobby McMann for board work, while a checking trio built around Scott Laughton takes heavy defensive-zone starts.

On the back end, Morgan Rielly rides with a veteran partner who can move pucks cleanly, and the second pair brings more edge and denial through the neutral zone. Joseph Woll projects to start; Dennis Hildeby backs up.

Projected Panthers look

Florida’s spine remains sturdy: a top line driven by Sam Reinhart’s finishing and a heavy forecheck underneath. Injuries have forced shuffles among the middle-six wings, prompting recent call-ups to stabilize the group. The blue line still leans on a minute-eater top pair and mobile support beneath them. Sergei Bobrovsky is the likely starter in net.

Three swing factors

1) Neutral-zone control
When Toronto strings together clean exits and entries, they manufacture slot looks without overextending the D. Florida’s counter is a layered 1-2-2 that turns sloppy Leafs routes into quick-strike rushes the other way. Whoever dictates the red line dictates shot quality.

2) Net-front and tips
The Panthers excel at net-front traffic—screens, boxing out, and sticks available for tips. Toronto must win those body-position battles and tie up sticks, especially on point shots to Woll’s eyes. At the other end, the Leafs need middle-lane drives to make Bobrovsky move east-west before shots.

3) Special teams discipline
Florida’s bumper looks punish late rotations; Toronto’s flank one-timers are lethal when entries are crisp. The quiet battle is who stays five-on-five. If either side hands out three or more power plays, the edge tilts.

Recent form snapshot

• Toronto: Up-and-down trip so far—an offensive outburst one night, then long scoring droughts when breakouts get bogged down. Depth scoring has improved, but late-game puck management remains a stress point.

• Florida: Grinding through injuries up front but still stingy when protecting a lead. The transition game hasn’t always popped, yet the structure holds at home.

Head-to-head notes

Florida owned the big moments last spring and also won the late-season meeting in April. The common thread: Panthers won the slot and the crease, forcing the Leafs to settle for outside volume. Toronto’s path tonight is the inverse—pucks inside the dots and second chances.

Micro-matchups to watch

• Matthews line vs. Panthers’ top pair: If Toronto’s first unit can draw switches and force weak-side collapses, they’ll find the seam passes that were missing in the playoff series.

• Tavares/Nylander vs. checking line: Florida’s physical trio tries to live in the offensive zone; quick counters from that matchup could swing momentum.

• Rielly’s exits vs. forecheck layers: First pass accuracy determines whether Toronto spends the night defending or attacking.

Analytics targets (rule of thumb)

• Toronto high-danger chances: 10+ at five-on-five is usually their winning recipe.

• Florida offensive-zone starts: Keep them under ~55% and you’ve broken the territorial cycle.

• Rush chances allowed by TOR: Anything above 7–8 often correlates with a Leafs loss.

Betting-style lean (informational only)

Market power ratings make this Panthers by a small number on home ice, total leaning to the over if both clubs avoid the box and it stays five-on-five with pace.

Prediction: Panthers 4, Maple Leafs 3 (OT)

Toronto’s top six produces, and Woll makes his share, but Florida’s forecheck and crease play generate one extra rebound goal and a late special-teams push. Call it an overtime decider with the Panthers nudging it on a net-front deflection.

Puck drop: 7:30 p.m. ET at Amerant Bank Arena.