Markets and Rankings Diverge Before CFB Selection Day
The landscape of college football is shifting as we approach College Football Playoff (CFP) Selection Day. Based on the latest betting odds, there appears to be a disconnect between what the rankings suggest and what the markets foresee.
Current Rankings and Betting Odds
The CFP committee has released a bracket that seems chaotic. It features 12 teams, including five automatic bids and seven at-large selections. Notably, BYU sits at No. 11 while Notre Dame is positioned high despite two losses.
The betting markets, however, have clearer insights. Key teams such as Alabama, Georgia, and Ohio State are poised to enter the playoffs regardless of their upcoming game outcomes. For instance:
- Alabama: -1800 to make the playoffs
- Notre Dame: -500
- BYU: +400
- James Madison: +140
This indicates that Alabama’s potential loss in the SEC championship would merely affect their seeding, not their playoff status. Similarly, Texas Tech is viewed favorably by the committee, securing their position despite outside doubts.
Impact of Conference Championships
The ACC Championship game between Virginia and Duke will significantly influence the playoff landscape. Virginia is currently favored by 3.5 points. The outcome will determine playoff accessibility for other teams, particularly affecting the Group of Five (G5) conference entrants.
Possible Outcomes
If Virginia wins, they solidify their spot, while Duke’s win would lead to a reshuffling of the playoff picture:
- Virginia takes the 11 spot.
- James Madison could move into contention based on Duke’s performance.
- BYU’s odds might increase significantly if Duke wins.
Group of Five Conference Dynamics
The implications extend to G5 teams as well. If Duke emerges victorious, both the AAC champion and a leading team from the Sun Belt or Mountain West could be included in the playoff field. Conversely, Virginia’s win would limit G5 representation to just one team, as demonstrated by the current spreads in those conferences:
- James Madison: -23.5
- North Texas: -2.5
- Boise State: -4
Betting Strategies Moving Forward
To align betting strategies with the most likely playoff outcomes, consider the “chalk bracket” parlay. This includes:
- Virginia money line
- Texas Tech money line
- James Madison money line
For those seeking a riskier approach, betting on both BYU’s and Duke’s money lines could create a true chaos scenario, potentially disrupting the expected rankings.
In conclusion, as CFP Selection Day looms, the betting markets present a clearer picture than the rankings suggest. The pivotal ACC championship game and the wildcard presence of BYU will be vital in determining the final playoff field.
