Packers Strategies to Exploit Chicago Bears’ Defensive Weaknesses
As the Green Bay Packers prepare to face the Chicago Bears, they aim to exploit the Bears’ defensive weaknesses. One chief area of focus will be the Bears’ susceptibility to giving up explosive plays, particularly in the passing game.
Understanding Explosive Plays
The concept of explosive plays is crucial in football. An explosive play is defined as a pass that gains 16 yards or more, or a run that surpasses 12 yards. Statistical analysis reveals that teams with a positive Explosive +/- of +2 have a winning rate between 80% to 85%. This season, the Packers lead the league with an Explosive +/- of +2.4, slightly ahead of the Denver Broncos at +2.3, while the Bears sit in seventh place at +1.3.
Offensive vs. Defensive Insights
- The Packers generate 0.92 fewer offensive explosive plays per game.
- Defensively, they give up 2.08 fewer explosive plays compared to their opponents.
- Packers average 22.4 yards per explosive play while allowing 21.6 yards.
- Bears average 21.8 yards per explosive play but allow 24.9 yards.
Pressure and Play Action Dilemmas
The Bears face challenges getting consistent pressure on opposing quarterbacks. Their average time to pressure is 2.89 seconds, ranking them 31st in the league. Additionally, their pressure rate of 29.3% is 28th overall.
This lack of pressure allows Packers’ quarterback Jordan Love to operate effectively, supporting the team’s preferred vertical playstyle. The Bears’ defense also struggles against play action, permitting an EPA (Expected Points Added) of +0.11 per dropback, placing them 22nd in the league. In contrast, the Packers generate +0.29 EPA per dropback on play action, ranking fifth.
Exploiting the Middle of the Field
The Bears’ defense has shown weaknesses in covering the middle of the field, particularly due to injuries at linebacker. This opens opportunities for explosive plays. Their safeties frequently linger deep, leaving significant space for crossing routes.
If receiver Jayden Reed returns, he could be utilized on multiple crossing routes to create mismatches and generate large gains. The Bears struggle with assignment communication, especially on deep switch routes, making concepts like Scissors or High Cross effective strategies.
Attacking with Man-Beaters
The Bears use man coverage on 42.9% of their defensive snaps, one of the highest rates in the league. This metric indicates that the Packers would benefit from deploying man-beating concepts. Key offensive schemes include High Cross, Mesh, and Smash Fade, which could all find success against the Bears’ defense.
Ultimately, the Packers are well-positioned to enhance their offensive strategy without significant changes from recent weeks. With plenty of options to target the middle of the field, they will take advantage of the opportunities created by the Bears’ defensive flaws and look to capitalize on matchups with players like Christian Watson on the outside.
