Manhattan Luxury Home Sales Surge Post-Mamdani Election Amid Millionaire Exodus Fears
The recent mayoral election in New York City has sparked discussions about the future of its luxury real estate market. Contrary to fears of a mass exodus of millionaires, recent data indicates a significant uptick in luxury home sales in Manhattan.
Manhattan Luxury Home Sales Surge
Following the election of mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani, sales of luxury properties in Manhattan have experienced a remarkable increase. In November, signed contracts for homes priced at $4 million or more surged to 176, reflecting a 25% increase from October’s 141 agreements. This trend highlights the resilience of the Manhattan real estate market.
Market Insights
- Signed contracts over $4 million: 176 in November
- October signed contracts: 141
- Increase from October to November: 25%
According to real estate firm Olshan Realty, November saw 151 luxury sales, up from 115 in October, marking a more than 31% increase. The last week of November also showcased a strong performance, with 17 contracts for luxury homes surpassing the 10-year Thanksgiving week average.
Contradicting the Exodus Narrative
Many believed the election of Mamdani, who has proposed policies such as increased eviction protections and a tax surcharge on high earners, would drive wealthy residents out of the city. However, real estate experts report otherwise. Donna Olshan of Olshan Realty stated, “The idea that people would flee New York was overblown.”
Wealthy Buyers Continue to Invest
Jonathan Miller, president of Miller Samuel Inc., emphasized that throughout 2025, luxury real estate sales have remained strong. Despite concerns, Manhattan’s luxury market has seen rising sales and prices, dispelling the notion of a major millionaire migration.
Factors Impacting New York’s Real Estate Market
The appeal of New York remains intact for many affluent buyers. Factors such as substantial Wall Street bonuses—projected to be the highest since 1987—ensure continued financial growth for many investment professionals.
- Wall Street bonuses expected to rise by up to 25% in 2025
- Strong market performance boosts staying power for high earners
Moreover, historical trends indicate that fears of wealthy residents abandoning the city are not new. Following the pandemic, despite some leaving, New York still gained approximately 10,000 millionaires between 2020 and 2021. By 2022, Manhattan surprisingly grew its population by 17,500 due primarily to migrants from neighboring boroughs.
Population Trends and Future Outlook
New York City’s population reached 8.8 million in 2020 but saw a decline to 8.5 million recently. The NYC Department of City Planning suggests that population losses during the pandemic may have been temporary. Recent growth trends signal a recovery in the city’s appeal.
As the city navigates through these changes, experts suggest that concerns over a mass migration of millionaires may be exaggerated. Much of the narrative surrounding the supposed exodus lacks robust evidence. Data shows that New York City remains a place of opportunity, continuing to attract wealth even amid political transitions.
