Historical Odds of a White Christmas Revealed
Many people dream of experiencing a white Christmas, but historical data reveals that this wish is not as common as one might think. A white Christmas is officially defined as having at least one inch of snow on the ground by Christmas morning. This measurement is considered snow cover, not falling snow that accumulates later in the day.
Understanding the Historical Odds of a White Christmas
The likelihood of a white Christmas varies significantly by region. Data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) from 1991 to 2020 illustrates these differences. In this timeframe, areas in the Mountain West, northern New England, and the far northern tier of the United States have consistently better odds, often exceeding a 50% chance.
National Snow Cover Trends
NOAA has tracked snow cover in the contiguous United States since 2003. On average, 36% of the Lower 48 states experienced snow cover on Christmas morning from 2003 through 2024. However, this coverage has fluctuated widely, with a low of nearly 18% in 2023 and a peak of 63% in 2009. Generally, regions with colder weather leading into Christmas have better chances for snow cover.
Recent Christmas Snow Cover Data
- 2023: 26% of the U.S. had snow cover on Christmas Day.
- 2009: Peak snow cover reached 63% across the country.
City-Specific Historical White Christmas Data
Examining historical data reveals varying chances of a white Christmas across U.S. cities:
Northeast
In the mid-Atlantic states, including Philadelphia, Baltimore, and Washington, D.C., snow cover is rare during late December. For instance, Washington, D.C. last experienced a white Christmas in 2009.
Midwest
Cities in Michigan’s Upper Peninsula typically enjoy a white Christmas. However, Chicago’s historical chance is roughly one in three, and the last occurrence was three years ago.
Plains
The Great Plains showcased a white Christmas in Minnesota and parts of the Dakotas last year. Yet, cities like Omaha and De Moines have less than a 40% chance of snow cover.
West
In the western U.S., particularly outside of mountainous regions, white Christmases are also uncommon. For example, Denver historically has a less than 50% chance. Notable snow events include a record 2-foot snowfall in Denver in 1982.
Southern States
While unlikely, a white Christmas can still occur in the South. South cities like Knoxville and Roanoke saw white Christmases in 2020. Significant weather events also impacted areas such as Oklahoma City and Corpus Christi in previous years.
Remarkable Historical Events
- 2009: Oklahoma City received 13.5 inches of snow, creating a white Christmas.
- 1989: Charleston and Savannah, South Carolina, experienced their only white Christmases with 4 and 2 inches respectively.
Conclusion
The dream of a white Christmas is shaped by geographic and climatic factors. While chances are higher in specific areas, many cities have not experienced snow on Christmas in years. For those wishing for a white Christmas, understanding these historical odds can help set realistic expectations.
