Trump’s Influence: Can He Lead Italy, Austria, Poland, Hungary Out of EU?

Since Donald Trump’s return to office, transatlantic relations have experienced significant strain. The National Security Strategy released on December 4, 2025, portrayed Europe negatively. It labeled the continent as declining and expressed concerns over “civilizational erasure” linked to migration policies. Furthermore, the document criticized issues like censorship and suppression of political opposition.

Trump’s Influence in Europe

A leaked draft of the National Security Strategy, reported by Defense One, suggested a strategic focus on four countries: Italy, Austria, Poland, and Hungary. The goal appears to be encouraging these nations to distance themselves from the European Union (EU).

Key Countries of Interest

• Hungary: Prime Minister Viktor Orban maintains a close relationship with Trump. Orban supported Trump during the 2016 presidential campaign, marking him as a unique ally among EU leaders.
• Italy: Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, from the right-wing Brothers of Italy party, aligns ideologically with Trump’s administration, although some analysts question her EU stance.
• Poland: The recently elected president from the national conservative Law and Justice party (PiS) signifies a right-leaning shift, potentially aligning with Trump’s goals.
• Austria: The far-right Freedom Party (FPÖ) is influential and currently leading in polls, indicating right-wing sympathies.

Notable Absences

Interestingly, two EU members, the Czech Republic and Slovakia, are not included in Trump’s focus list. Both nations have seen right-wing or populist governments recently. Notably, Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico’s party has distanced itself from traditional EU alignment. Analysts suggest their exclusion stems from differing ideological backgrounds compared to the preferred nations.

The Impact on the EU

Experts warn that Trump’s administration may not seek outright exits from the EU, such as “Huxit,” “Italexit,” “Auxit,” or “Polexit.” Instead, the aim seems to be a gradual erosion of EU unity through political and financial support for EU-skeptic leaders.

Signs of this disintegration are emerging. Hungary has indicated reluctance to comply with the EU’s energy strategies, maintaining its ties to Russian energy despite EU sanctions. Orban has recently challenged EU mandates, threatening legal action.

Conclusions

As the geopolitical landscape shifts, the implications of Trump’s relationships with these four nations could redefine the future of the European Union. Analysts say that the continued support from the US may weaken Brussels and challenge longstanding EU alliances.