Iran Developments: December 12, 2025 Update

The evolving geopolitical landscape in the Middle East has seen crucial developments, particularly concerning Iran and its regional influence. As of December 12, 2025, the 2026 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) has significantly altered the funding dynamics for the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF). This legislation is expected to impact Iranian-backed Iraqi militias and their operations.

Key Conditions of the 2026 NDAA

The NDAA stipulates three primary conditions that the Iraqi government must fulfill to secure more than 75% of authorized funding for the ISF:

• Condition 1: Implement a publicly verifiable process to disarm, demobilize, and reintegrate non-integrated Iranian-backed militias.
• Condition 2: Strengthen the authority and operational control of Iraq’s Prime Minister as the commander-in-chief.
• Condition 3: Conduct investigations and ensure accountability for militia members who engage in illegal actions against U.S. or Iraqi personnel.

These stipulations aim to reduce the operational capacity of militias that align with Iranian interests, thereby enhancing U.S. leverage over the Iraqi government.

Response of Iranian-Backed Militias

Despite these conditions, Iranian-backed militias might seek to adapt. They could set up facade groups to mask their actual activities and maintain operational capabilities outside the formal chain of command. Such tactics historically allow them to obscure their affiliations and responsibility for attacks targeting U.S. assets and energy infrastructure.

Potential Evasion Tactics

Militia groups might attempt to circumvent the NDAA conditions in several ways:

• Facilitating New Brigades: Creating new PMF brigades while claiming existing members have been disarmed.
• Obfuscating Command Structures: Claiming to adhere to the official chain of command while actually following extralegal orders.
• Influencing Judicial Processes: Utilizing political power to manipulate arrests and releases of militia members involved in illegal activities.

Influence of U.S. Policy

The U.S. is focused on preventing the establishment of an overwhelmingly pro-Iranian Iraqi government. Reports indicate that the U.S. has communicated its intent to disengage from officials aligned with Iranian-backed militias.

Iran’s Missile Program Developments

In parallel, it has been reported that Iran has reinstated its missile stockpile to approximately 2,000 missiles. This recovery follows a prioritization of missile program enhancement post-conflict with Israel. Such developments present significant security concerns for Israel and indicate the resilience of Iran’s armaments capabilities.

Regional Military Coordination

On another front, discussions between Turkey and Syrian defense officials suggest preparations for potential operations in northeastern Syria. Turkey aims to enhance military cooperation with Syria amidst ongoing regional tensions.

Emerging Situations in Yemen

In Yemen, the Southern Transitional Council (STC) expresses intent to establish independence, consolidating control over eastern regions. The STC’s recent military campaign has successfully broadened its presence across all eight southern governorates.

These developments reflect a significant shift in the Middle Eastern geopolitical landscape, with implications for U.S. foreign policy, Iranian influence, and regional stability.