Weather Pattern Shift in Late December May Diminish White Christmas Hopes
Much of the northern United States has experienced cold and snowy conditions since Thanksgiving. However, a shift in the weather pattern could significantly reduce the likelihood of a white Christmas for many regions.
Understanding White Christmas Definitions
A white Christmas occurs when at least one inch of snow remains on the ground on Christmas morning, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
Current Weather Conditions
Arctic air has frequently surged across the Midwest, Northeast, and South in recent weeks. This influx of cold air led to significant snowfall, particularly this past weekend.
Impending Weather Changes
The most pressing question is how much snow will persist for December 25. Forecasts indicate that a major jet stream pattern shift will likely lead to melting snow.
Impact of the Jet Stream
December has begun with colder weather due to a wavy jet stream that has funneled Arctic air into the central and eastern U.S. However, a smooth transition to a west-to-east jet stream pattern is expected soon.
This change will act as a barrier, inhibiting long-lasting cold air from drifting south from Canada. Consequently, warmer-than-average temperatures are anticipated across a large portion of the country for the remainder of December.
Regional Temperature Expectations
- Much of the U.S. will see milder temperatures.
- The far northern tier may experience temperatures around or slightly below seasonal norms.
Some existing snow in the Midwest and Northeast is likely to melt due to these warmer conditions. Rainfall from an approaching storm system could exacerbate this situation, particularly in areas as far north as Michigan and Maine later this week.
Snow Forecast for Christmas Day
Forecast models suggest that areas with the best chances of waking up to snow on Christmas morning include:
- Mountain West
- Northern Plains
- Upper Midwest
- Northern New England
- Great Lakes snow belts
While there may still be hope for new snowfall from storm systems in the upcoming week, predictions currently suggest a slim chance for a white Christmas.
Historical Chances for a White Christmas
Historically, the likelihood of experiencing a white Christmas across most of the Lower 48 states is less than 50%. For nearly guaranteed chances, popular ski resorts in the West or northern New England are recommended. Cities with the highest probabilities include:
| Location | Chance of White Christmas |
|---|---|
| Marquette, Michigan | 90%+ |
| Duluth, Minnesota | 90%+ |
| Minneapolis-St. Paul | 74% |
| Chicago | 34% |
| New York | 13% |
| Denver | Less than 50% |
| Salt Lake City | Less than 50% |
In contrast, the South generally has the lowest chances for a white Christmas, although there have been rare occasions. One notable event occurred in 2004 when a snowstorm on Christmas Eve affected South Texas.
As the holiday approaches, the hope for a white Christmas remains uncertain for many, contingent on the evolving weather patterns across the United States.
