‘Fire and Ash’ Targets $340M-$380M Global Box Office Debut
20th Century Studios’ latest installment of the Avatar franchise, titled “Fire and Ash,” is set to debut with an impressive global box office projection. The film is expected to garner between $340 million and $380 million in its opening weekend, placing it among the year’s highest-grossing releases.
Box Office Expectations
The anticipated opening for “Fire and Ash” contrasts with the 2022 predecessor, “Avatar: The Way of Water,” which launched to $444 million. This new installment’s performance is expected to place it as the second-best opener of the year, following Disney’s “Zootopia 2,” which made $560.3 million last month.
- Estimated global opening: $340M – $380M
- Estimated overseas launch: $250M – $275M
Domestic and International Rollout
“Fire and Ash” is scheduled for release in approximately 3,800 theaters across North America. Out of these, 430 are dedicated IMAX 3D auditoriums and over 1,000 are premium large format screens, ensuring a broad audience experience. Critical pre-sales indicate a domestic opening potentially over $90 million.
The film is also launching internationally today. Key markets include:
- France
- Germany
- Italy
- Korea
Additional countries such as Australia, Brazil, Mexico, China, the UK, Japan, Spain, and India will follow over the weekend.
Critical Reception
As of now, “Fire and Ash” holds a critical score of 71% on Rotten Tomatoes, the lowest of the trilogy. In comparison, the first two installments scored 81% and 76% respectively.
Long-Term Projections
Despite a strong opening, the longevity of box office success will be a critical factor. Historical trends show that the Avatar films often have a significant ‘afterburn’ effect, with substantial earnings in subsequent weeks.
The film’s runtime of over three hours may also influence viewing patterns, as audiences are likely to seek optimal screening times and locations.
Competitive Landscape
In North America, “Fire and Ash” faces competition from other releases like:
- Angel Studios’ animated faith-based film “David” ($20M – $25M projected)
- Lionsgate’s thriller “The Housemaid” ($20M+ projected)
- Paramount’s “SpongeBob Movie: Search for SquarePants” ($15M – $20M projected)
Overall Market Condition
Overall, the film’s success will not be solely determined by its opening weekend but rather its cumulative performance as the holiday season progresses. In particular, strong holiday attendance typically supports box office returns, and “Fire and Ash” will likely benefit from this trend.
