Canada Faces Population Decline Due to International Student Crackdown

Canada is experiencing a significant population decline, primarily attributed to a crackdown on international students. This change signals a notable shift for a nation that has historically relied on immigration for economic growth.

Population Decline Statistics

According to the latest data from Statistics Canada, the country’s population decreased by 0.2% in the third quarter of 2023. The total population now stands at 41.6 million, down from 41.65 million on July 1. This marks only the second quarterly decline in Canadian history, the first occurring in 2020 due to COVID-19 border restrictions.

Causes of the Decline

• The decline is largely due to a reduction in international students.
• New policies from the Canadian government aim to decrease the number of study permits issued.
• This shift follows increasing public pushback against high immigration levels.

Government Response

Responding to these concerns, the Liberal government, under Prime Minister Mark Carney, has adjusted its immigration policies. The plan includes:

• Reducing non-permanent residents from 6.8% to 5% of the population by 2027.
• Halving the target for international student permits from 305,900 in 2025 to 155,000 in 2026.
• Issuing 150,000 new study permits per year for 2027 and 2028.

In contrast, the government is planning to increase the intake of permanent residents. The anticipated numbers are 395,000 in 2025, 380,000 in 2026, and 365,000 in 2027.

Economic Implications

Finance Minister François-Philippe Champagne noted that Canada has exceeded its capacity to accommodate immigrants in recent years. Economist Robert Kavcic from the Bank of Montreal highlighted the economic adjustments underway, suggesting the population growth will need to stabilize just above zero until 2028. He also foresees potential benefits from the decline:

• A reduction in pressure on the rental market.
• Less strain on service inflation.
• Growth in real GDP per capita.

Most provinces and territories reported population decreases, with Alberta and Nunavut being notable exceptions, both recording an increase of 0.2%.

As Canada navigates this new demographic landscape, the effects on its economy and society will be closely monitored.