Seismologists Warn of Major Earthquake Threat Under Istanbul

Bassyonni

ago 5 hours

Turkey is situated on several tectonic plates, making it a hotspot for seismic activity. A significant earthquake occurred on February 6, 2023, resulting from a slip along the East Anatolian Fault. This event caused widespread devastation, with magnitudes of 7.8 and 7.5, resulting in around 45,000 fatalities.

Major Earthquake Threat Under Istanbul

Another critical area of concern is the North Anatolian Fault, which lies between the Eurasian Plate and the Anatolian Block. These two tectonic plates move relative to each other at rates of 17 to 29 millimeters per year, generating powerful earthquakes.

Historical Seismic Activity

Previous major earthquakes on the North Anatolian Fault have mostly migrated westward over time.
The Marmara Sea segment of this fault has not experienced a magnitude greater than 7 since 1766.
The average recurrence interval for significant earthquakes in this region is approximately 250 years.

The extended period without significant seismic activity raises alarms about a potential catastrophic earthquake in Istanbul, home to 18 million residents. The locked segment near the Sea of Marmara poses the greatest risk.

Current Seismic Concerns

Recent studies indicate that the epicenters of earthquakes exceeding magnitude 5 are shifting eastward in this segment. Researchers reported that this locked area is located just south of Istanbul. Marco Bohnhoff, a researcher from GFZ Potsdam, cautioned that a major earthquake could strike this blocked fault section, likely causing substantial destruction.

Need for Enhanced Monitoring

Given the potential for a significant earthquake, experts recommend the establishment of more seismic monitoring stations in the region. Enhanced surveillance could improve early warning systems, crucial for protecting lives. Every second counts when it comes to disaster preparedness.

In summary, Istanbul faces an increasing threat from the North Anatolian Fault. Continuous monitoring and a proactive approach can help mitigate the risks associated with potential large-scale earthquakes.