College Football Playoff’s Top Home-Field Advantage Revealed by Numbers

Bassyonni

ago 2 hours

The recent expansion of the College Football Playoff to 12 teams has significantly impacted team matchups. With the top four teams receiving byes, the first-round games are being played at the home venues of seeds 5-8. This includes notable matchups involving Oregon, Ole Miss, Texas A&M, and Oklahoma.

Top Home-Field Advantage Revealed by Numbers

This analysis seeks to determine the teams with the greatest home-field advantage. The evaluation considers factors like talent and overall team success, focusing on performance against Power 5 conference teams while excluding the 2020 season data due to pandemic-related limitations.

Home Records

Home performance against quality opponents is critical in assessing home-field advantage. The records for the teams in this aspect are:

Oklahoma: 37 wins, 7 losses (.841 winning percentage)
Oregon: 42 wins, 9 losses (.824)
Ole Miss: 26 wins, 17 losses (.605)
Texas A&M: 24 wins, 16 losses (.600)

Home/Road Winning Percentage Differential

Next, we examined how much better teams performed at home compared to away games, including neutral-site contests. The results show:

Oregon: 24.2% better at home
Oklahoma: 20.8% better
Ole Miss: 13.6% better
Texas A&M: 12% better

Against the Spread Performance

Evaluating teams based on their performance against the spread helps gauge home advantage. The data reveals:

Oklahoma: 25 wins, 19 losses
Oregon: Covered 53% of games
Texas A&M: Improved from below .500 on the road to above .500 at home
Ole Miss: 18 wins, 23 losses, 2 ties (losing record overall)

Close Game Performance

In games where the point spread was within seven points, the analysis revealed:

Oregon: 10 wins, 4 losses
Ole Miss: 14 wins, 9 losses
Oklahoma: 7 wins, 5 losses
Texas A&M: 10 wins, 12 losses

Performance Against Better Teams

When an inferior team defeats a stronger opponent at home, it indicates strong home-field advantage. The rankings based on this analysis showed:

Oregon: Best performance with a 4-5 home record
Oklahoma: Second best at home
Ole Miss and Texas A&M struggled at home against better teams

Influence of Home Crowd on Opponent Penalties

Finally, evaluating pre-snap penalties, we find:

Oregon: 2.45 penalties per game drawn from opponents
Texas A&M: 2.18
Ole Miss: 1.86
Oklahoma: 1.77

Overall, Oregon displays a notable home-field advantage in several metrics. While Oklahoma performs strongly in the context of spread and close games, the Ducks excel in capturing victories against stronger teams in their venue. This weekend’s matchups will provide further insights into these trends as the playoff action unfolds.