Supercomputer Projects 2025–26 Premier League Standings by Christmas Day

As of Christmas Day 2025, Arsenal tops the Premier League standings for the fifth time in the club’s history. Mikel Arteta’s team has maintained a strong lead throughout the season, though their recent form allowed Manchester City to reduce the deficit from seven points to just two.

The ongoing season promises thrilling competition, with Aston Villa emerging as a potential threat to the traditional elite. Both Chelsea and Liverpool are also striving to remain competitive in the title race. Historically, 17 out of the 33 teams leading at Christmas eventually secured the title, but Arsenal is cautious. The club has experienced slip-ups in recent seasons, including three failures to secure the championship after leading at Christmas.

Supercomputer Predictions for the Premier League

Opta’s supercomputer offers forecasts for the remainder of the season, highlighting Arsenal as the leading candidate for the title with a projected finish of approximately 82.46 points and a 68.7% chance of winning. However, Manchester City is not far behind with 76.79 expected points but only a 24.4% chance of taking the title.

Current Top Teams and Their Expected Outcomes

• Arsenal: 39 points, 82.46 expected points, 68.7% chance of winning the title.
• Manchester City: 37 points, 76.79 expected points, 24.4% chance.
• Aston Villa: 36 points, 71.43 expected points, projected to finish third.

While more battles loom, both Chelsea and Liverpool are determined to reach European football. Liverpool, facing a disappointing season, has only a 0.97% chance of defending their title but is expected to climb to fourth place. Chelsea remains in contention for Champions League qualification as well.

Relegation Battle

As the season unfolds, the relegation fight intensifies among several clubs including West Ham, Burnley, and Wolverhampton Wanderers. The supercomputer predicts the current bottom three faces a challenging road ahead:

• West Ham United: Projected to finish with around 36 points.
• Burnley: Expected to end with approximately 30 points.
• Wolverhampton Wanderers: Anticipated to manage only 19 points.

The race for survival typically hinges on reaching 40 points, and the predictions indicate a struggle for several teams. Wolverhampton, currently last, may face the prospect of finishing as the lowest-scoring team in Premier League history.

As the season approaches its crucial final weeks, the standings may dramatically shift, with Arsenal and Manchester City set to clash in a pivotal match on April 18, 2026.