Potential Opportunities and Risks Ahead
In December 2020, just a month before the US executed a military operation against Islamic State-linked militants in northwest Nigeria, President Donald Trump publicly identified Nigeria as a “country of particular concern.” This designation emerged amid escalating violence against Christians by terrorist groups.
On Christmas Day, the US military, through Africa Command and in collaboration with Nigerian authorities, targeted terrorist locations in Sokoto state. The operation sparked mixed reactions. While some viewed it as a decisive action against terrorism, others raised concerns about Nigeria’s sovereignty.
Potential Opportunities and Risks Ahead
The US intervention presents both immediate benefits and potential long-term risks for Nigeria’s counter-terrorism efforts.
Immediate Gains from US-Nigerian Cooperation
- Enhanced Intelligence Gathering: Prior to the strikes, US reconnaissance flights aided in identifying terrorist movements within Nigeria. This collaboration allowed for the collection of crucial data that informs military strategies.
- Access to Military Hardware: Following years of strained relations regarding military support, the recent strike indicates a renewed willingness from the US to assist Nigeria with advanced military resources.
- Combatting Cross-Border Terrorism: The operation was prompted by intelligence suggesting movements of terrorist cells from neighboring Niger and Burkina Faso into Nigeria. Enhanced cooperation could facilitate more effective border control.
- Message to Terrorist Groups: The decisive nature of the US strikes signals a bolstered commitment to counter-terrorism efforts, possibly deterring further attacks.
Risks Associated with US Intervention
Nevertheless, there are significant risks associated with this intervention that Nigeria must navigate:
- Loss of Sovereignty: If Nigeria does not assert control over its counter-terrorism initiatives, it risks compromising its sovereignty and intelligence capabilities. Previous experiences with intelligence sharing underscore the importance of maintaining operational independence.
- Coordination of Follow-Up Actions: The Nigerian military must act swiftly to dismantle terrorist networks, capitalizing on the confusion created by the strikes. Historical precedents show that failure to act decisively can lead to the fragmentation of terrorist organizations.
- Internal Political Divide: The framing of the US attack has sparked political tension within Nigeria. Differing narratives regarding the motives behind the intervention could exacerbate existing divisions among various political and religious factions.
Moving forward, Nigeria’s approach to the renewed military collaboration with the US must be carefully managed. The government needs to present a unified stance emphasizing that the objective is to combat terrorism and ensure national stability, rather than to target specific ethnic or religious groups.
