“Maduro’s Fall: The Mantra Defining Years of Venezuela’s Political Conflict”

Venezuela has been gripped by a political conflict characterized by the mantra “Nicolás Maduro will fall,” prominently voiced since January 2019. This sentiment resonated among opposition leaders, activists, and the suffering populace, both domestically and in exile.

Key Events in Maduro’s Fall

The prospect of overthrowing Nicolás Maduro, Hugo Chávez’s successor, seemed plausible multiple times.However, recurring cycles of hope and disappointment marked the political discourse among anti-Chavista circles.

Initial Challenges to Maduro’s Presidency

• January 5, 2019: The National Assembly’s session typically begins.
• January 10, 2019: Maduro claimed electoral victory without evidence, marking one year in power.
• January 2019: Juan Guaidó proclaimed himself the interim president, supported by the Trump administration.

Guaidó’s bold move triggered intense months of political tension in Caracas, exhibiting an air of possible regime change.

Failed Attempts to Oust Maduro

• February 2019: A failed attempt to introduce humanitarian aid from Colombia captured international attention.
• April 30, 2019: Leopoldo López escaped house arrest to rally military support, further exposing regime vulnerabilities.

Nonetheless, these efforts were thwarted, leading to a sense of stagnation for the opposition.

The Shift in Dynamics

As dialogue attempts faltered, internal divisions in the opposition began to surface. Insights from John Bolton’s memoir revealed erratic decisions from Trump regarding Guaidó’s capabilities, as he expressed concerns about Guaidó’s experience.

The Gedeón Operation

In spring 2020, a bizarre operation named Gedeón sought to facilitate Maduro’s removal but ultimately solidified his regime. This failed attempt marked a turning point for the opposition.

Emerging Leadership and Renewed Hope

Subsequent weary months for the opposition shifted when María Corina Machado emerged victorious in the primaries, showing willingness to lead despite her disqualification. Machado believes that Maduro’s exit is inevitable.

Current Beliefs and Predictions

In her recent interviews, Machado highlighted Maduro’s isolation as a crucial factor for his potential downfall, stating, “Sooner or later, Maduro will leave.”

As tensions mount, these sentiments are echoed across opposition ranks, with recent actions involving U.S. military engagement in the Caribbean heightening anticipation.

On January 3, bombings within Venezuela and Trump’s announcement about capturing Maduro reignited hopes for a regime change.

The political landscape remains volatile, with all eyes keenly focused on what comes next in Venezuela’s ongoing conflict.