China-Taiwan Relations Update: Key Developments as of January 2, 2026

The ongoing tension between China and Taiwan continues to escalate, particularly through military maneuvers and political developments. Notably, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) conducted significant military exercises from December 29 to 30, 2025. Named Justice Mission 2025, these drills simulated a blockade around Taiwan and marked the second such exercise in the year.

Military Exercises and Blockade Simulation

Justice Mission 2025 served to enhance the PRC’s political and psychological leverage over Taiwan. The exercises involved various naval and coast guard assets focusing on enforcing a blockade, along with rehearsals for counter-intervention operations.

• The exercise did not employ PLA Navy aircraft carriers, indicating a focus on specific tactical elements.
• Various operations were rehearsed, including amphibious assaults and long-range rocket fire.

PRC propaganda underscored the blockade theme of the drills, which may also have aimed to refine strategies that could support potential invasion scenarios.

Increased Military Challenges and Reports

The U.S. Department of Defense released the China Military Power Report for 2025 on December 23, which outlined PLA advancements over the previous year. This congressionally mandated report highlighted:

• Modernization of PLA technology and strategies around Taiwan and South China Sea.
• Plans to develop six additional aircraft carriers by 2035, aiming for a total of nine.
• Advancements in the PLA Rocket Force, including the long-range DF-27 missile, capable of striking targets across vast distances.

The report also noted operational adjustments in response to the war in Ukraine and emphasized the importance of projecting strength within the Indo-Pacific region.

Political Developments in Taiwan

Amid these military tensions, Taiwan’s Legislative Yuan voted 60-51 to initiate impeachment proceedings against President William Lai Ching-te. This unprecedented step is largely viewed as symbolic due to the opposition coalition’s insufficient votes to successfully remove him from office.

The Legislative Yuan had previously passed amendments to redistribute government revenue, but the presidential cabinet’s refusal to countersign these amendments prompted the impeachment efforts.

PRC Influence Operations

Reports from Japanese media have revealed PRC strategies to influence foreign elections, including potential interference in Taiwan’s upcoming elections in 2026 and 2028. Documents indicate tactics such as creating fictitious social media accounts to sway public opinion.

Concerned about these developments, Taiwan has emphasized the importance of public awareness regarding misinformation tactics employed by the PRC.

China Coast Guard Activity and Air Incursions

Concurrent with Justice Mission 2025, the China Coast Guard (CCG) intensified patrols in Taiwanese-administered waters. These incursions aimed to normalize the PRC’s presence and extend its claim over Taiwanese territories.

Additionally, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) conducted 274 sorties into Taiwan’s Air Defense Identification Zone in December 2025, with significant spikes during military exercises.

Future Concerns

The geopolitical landscape remains fraught with potential risks as the PRC seeks to assert control over Taiwan. With military preparations ongoing and political tensions rising, the situation will continue to evolve. The implications for regional stability in East Asia are profound, impacting the balance of power for neighboring countries.