Trader Earns $400,000 on Polymarket Bet Over Nicolás Maduro Capture
Investment activity on Polymarket surrounding Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro has raised eyebrows following recent military actions. Just before the U.S. military captured Maduro, a new account on the prediction market made significant investments tied to his removal from power.
Understanding the Investment Timing
On January 3, 2026, Polymarket showed particularly low prices for bets on Maduro’s ousting, some as low as $0.07. However, in a surprising turn of events, less than 24 hours after the military operation, a newly created account invested more than $30,000 just before the attack. This account managed to earn profits exceeding $408,000 shortly after the military action.
Concerns Over Insider Trading
Following the events, many speculated about the motivations behind this sharp investment. Observers suggested that the individual might have acted on insider information, possibly linked to the Pentagon. Joe Pompliano, a noteworthy investor and podcaster, highlighted on X that “insider trading is not only allowed on prediction markets; it’s encouraged,” raising significant concerns about market integrity.
Historical Context
This incident is not an isolated one; prediction markets have seen similar instances of seemingly obvious insider trading in the past. However, these companies generally have little incentive to prevent such practices. They argue that their platforms provide value not as a fair marketplace, but rather as sources of news and insights.
Company Responses
In response to the emerging concerns, Kalshi, another prediction market entity, affirmed on X that insider trading violates its policies. Despite attempts to reach Polymarket for a comment on the situation, a response has yet to be received.
- Investment Amount: Over $30,000
- Profit Earned: Over $408,000
- Price Prior to Investment: As low as $0.07
- Date of Investment: January 2, 2026
- Date of Military Action: January 3, 2026
This sequence of events illustrates the intersection of financial prediction markets and real-world events, raising essential questions about market practices and regulations.
