Supercomputer Forecasts Mid-Season 2025–26 Premier League Standings
The first half of the 2025–26 Premier League season has concluded, highlighting Arsenal’s lead over their closest rivals, Manchester City and Aston Villa. The festive period brought unexpected changes, including the shocking departure of Chelsea’s manager, Enzo Maresca.
As the winter transfer window opens, the competition intensifies, particularly after some surprising match results where key teams dropped points. Arsenal secured a commanding 4–1 victory over Aston Villa, placing them three points ahead as they enter the new year.
Supercomputer Forecasts Premier League Standings
Opta’s supercomputer has conducted a forecast for the second half of the season, assessing each team’s potential performance.
| Position | Team | Current Points | Expected Points | Title Percentage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal | 45 | 84.55 | 78.98% |
| 2 | Manchester City | 41 | 76.92 | 16.69% |
| 3 | Aston Villa | 39 | 72.85 | 4.15% |
According to the supercomputer, Arsenal remains the favorite to claim the Premier League title, boasting a remarkable 78.98% chance. The projected points total for Arsenal by season’s end is approximately 84, matching Liverpool’s previous title-winning total.
Manchester City, despite a strong performance in late December, faces challenges following a disappointing draw with Sunderland. Their chance to secure the title is currently pegged at 16.69%, placing them in a difficult position.
Aston Villa, after an impressive 11-game winning streak, anticipates a finish that could be the highest for the club since 1993.
Champions League Qualification Battle
As the fight for Champions League spots intensifies, several teams are contending for positions in UEFA’s elite competition.
| Position | Team | Current Points | Expected Points | Champions League Percentage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Liverpool | 33 | 64.74 | 56.28% |
| 5 | Chelsea | 30 | 59.28 | 20.71% |
| 6 | Manchester United | 30 | 55.80 | 7.58% |
| 7 | Newcastle United | 26 | 55.04 | 5.62% |
| 8 | Everton | 28 | 53.19 | 2.91% |
| 9 | Brentford | 27 | 53.08 | 3.24% |
| 10 | Tottenham Hotspur | 26 | 52.65 | 3.01% |
Liverpool holds the fourth position but is managing a declining title defense. Chelsea’s prospects have dimmed, with a mere 20.71% chance of maintaining their Champions League spot after struggling to secure wins.
Manchester United has managed to climb the standings significantly, while teams like Newcastle, Everton, and Brentford are closely competing for European qualification.
With the season’s unpredictable nature, every match remains crucial as the Premier League journey continues. The excitement is set to build as the teams vie for supremacy in the upcoming fixtures.
