Forecasters Predict 2026 as Cheapest Gas Year Since COVID Pandemic

Gas prices are expected to drop significantly in 2026, potentially averaging just $2.97 per gallon nationwide. This forecast, provided by GasBuddy, indicates that it will be the first year since 2020 to have annual average prices below $3 a gallon. This trend marks four consecutive years of declining prices at the pump.

Impact of Global Events on Gas Prices

The projected drop comes amid ongoing uncertainty in Venezuela, following a recent U.S. strike and the capture of President Nicolas Maduro. Despite these developments, GasBuddy’s head of petroleum analysis, Patrick De Haan, maintains a positive outlook. He believes that rebuilding Venezuela’s energy infrastructure will take considerable time, and therefore, immediate disruptions to oil supply are unlikely.

Comparative Analysis of Gas Prices

• 2022: Gas prices soared above $5 per gallon, fueled by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
• 2025: The U.S. annual average gas price dropped to $3.10 per gallon.
• 2026: Forecasted average price is $2.97 per gallon, approximately $11 billion less spent on fuel compared to 2025.

With prices evolving, many consumers can expect a yearly household expenditure on gas to decrease from $2,716 in 2022 to approximately $2,083 in 2026. Notably, ten U.S. states are expected to enjoy rates below $2.75 per gallon, including Alabama, Arkansas, Kansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, and Texas.

Oil Production Trends

Globally, the oil market has seen a significant decline, with prices dropping 20% in 2025, marking the most substantial annual decrease since 2020. Crude oil prices have now fallen for four consecutive quarters, indicating a prolonged period of cheap oil. The U.S. oil price is projected to average around $51 per barrel in 2026, compared to $65 in 2025.

U.S. oil production, while strong, is anticipated to dip slightly to an average of 13.5 million barrels per day in 2026. This decline could be attributed to lower prices affecting drilling plans. De Haan warns that extended low prices could shift more market share to OPEC, as U.S. production falters.

Future Considerations

While the forecast for 2026 appears favorable, numerous factors could impact gas prices. Potential geopolitical instability in Venezuela or disruptions stemming from the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine may pose risks. Additionally, a change in OPEC’s production strategy could alter the current trajectory of cheap gasoline.

Despite these uncertainties, the outlook suggests that gas prices may continue to provide relief for consumers facing rising costs in other areas, reaffirming that gasoline may remain a rare bright spot in a challenging economic landscape.