German Marshall Fund Analyzes China’s Potential Attack on Taiwan

The German Marshall Fund has recently conducted an analysis focusing on the implications of a potential military conflict between China and Taiwan. This comprehensive study sheds light on the consequences such an event could have on the People’s Republic of China (PRC) itself, particularly concerning President Xi Jinping’s decision-making regarding the use of force. The report emphasizes that Xi’s strategy for Taiwan is intertwined with his vision for national rejuvenation by 2049.

Understanding Xi Jinping’s Risk Calculus

President Xi Jinping’s decisions regarding Taiwan are framed by a complex risk calculus. Should Beijing opt for military action, the consequences could be dire, impacting the economy, military strength, social stability, and international relations. Any significant conflict may disrupt China’s economic stability and trigger social unrest, directly challenging Xi’s authority.

Assessing Economic Impact

• Potential massive economic disruption due to military conflict
• Increased sanctions leading to further economic strain

Military Considerations

The analysis highlights the importance of understanding various military scenarios, including limited conflicts and major wars. Each scenario outlines different intensities and durations of conflict, providing insight into potential military losses for the PRC.

Social Stability Risks

Conflict over Taiwan could also threaten social stability within the PRC. A substantial military engagement might lead to significant civilian discontent in the wake of casualties and economic hardships.

Possible Scenarios of Conflict

The report presents two primary scenarios to illustrate a range of potential outcomes:

• Minor Conflict: This scenario involves several weeks of tension, with PRC forces surrounding Taiwan after skirmishes. The United States intervenes to ensure safe passage for commercial vessels.
• Major Conflict: A prolonged conflict where an amphibious invasion leads to heavy losses for the PLA. Estimates suggest a loss of approximately 100,000 PRC personnel, 50,000 Taiwanese military personnel, and significant civilian casualties on both sides.

Concluding Thoughts

The study starkly illustrates that any military action taken by the PRC against Taiwan may result in severe repercussions for China. The potential costs, especially from a failure in conflict, could redefine Xi’s vision for the nation and disrupt the quest for the “China Dream.” Understanding these dynamics is critical for policymakers focused on maintaining regional stability.