Mexico’s President Claims Violence Drop, But Data Shows Complexity

In a recent presentation, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum reported a significant decline in daily homicides, claiming a 40% drop nationwide since taking office. This announcement is part of her efforts to demonstrate progress in combating organized crime to the U.S. administration.

Highlights of Homicide Reduction

Sheinbaum’s report indicates an average of 87 daily homicides in September 2024, the month prior to her presidency. By December 2025, this number decreased to 52. This drop is noted as the lowest rate in a decade.

• 2025 Homicide Rate: 17.5 per 100,000 residents
• 2018 Homicide Rate: 29.1 per 100,000 residents
• 2024 Homicide Rate: 25.4 per 100,000 residents

In comparison, the U.S. recorded a homicide rate of 4 per 100,000 people last year, reflecting a stark contrast between the two countries.

New Strategies for Law Enforcement

Sheinbaum attributed the decline in homicides to a revamped law enforcement strategy. This approach prioritizes intelligence gathering and improves agency coordination. She referenced increased arrests and drug seizures as evidence of her administration’s commitment to curbing criminal activities linked to drug cartels.

Growing Concerns Amid Declining Homicides

Despite the positive homicide statistics, security analysts raised concerns regarding the broader implications of violence in Mexico. Both kidnappings and forced disappearances have increased during Sheinbaum’s term.

• Rising issues:
  • Forced Disappearances
  • Femicides (the killing of women due to their gender)

Many polls indicate a rise in the percentage of Mexicans who feel unsafe. Security expert Armando Vargas emphasized the importance of analyzing various types of violent crimes, suggesting that focusing solely on homicide statistics may not provide a complete picture of public safety.

Impact of Cartel Violence

Cartel-related violence remains prevalent, particularly in northern Mexico, where the Sinaloa cartel faces internal conflicts. Additionally, in Michoacán, the Cartel de Jalisco New Generation is vying for control over lucrative drug trafficking routes and industries.

Last year, public outrage surged following the assassination of Carlos Manzo, a mayor advocating for tougher measures against crime. In response, Sheinbaum dispatched troops to Michoacán and unveiled a new violence control plan.

Conclusion

While Sheinbaum’s administration touts a significant drop in homicide rates, the overall landscape of violence in Mexico presents a more complex issue. The interplay of rising kidnapping rates, forced disappearances, and persistent cartel conflicts suggests that the fight against crime is far from over.