Today’s Jobs Report: Key Insights and Expectations

On Friday, January 5, 2026, at 8:30 a.m. ET, the Bureau of Labor Statistics is set to unveil the latest jobs report, providing crucial insights into the US labor market’s state. Economists are divided on the projections for December’s employment numbers. The consensus anticipates an addition of 55,000 jobs, indicating the slowest annual growth in decades.

Labor Market Expectations for December

Some analysts believe that December’s job totals could exceed expectations, potentially reaching over 105,000. This optimism is partly attributed to seasonal factors, like the holiday hiring surge. In contrast, the unemployment rate is projected to decrease slightly to 4.5%, following a rise to 4.6% in November.

2025 Employment Trends

The total job gains for 2025 are projected to be around 710,000, marking the lowest hiring level outside of a recession since 2003. Heather Long, chief economist at Navy Federal Credit Union, expressed concern, emphasizing how even 2010 saw better employment numbers post-Great Recession.

Consumer Sentiment and Job Security

• The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s December survey reveals a record low job-finding probability of 43.1%.
• Respondents indicated an increased likelihood of job loss, the highest since April 2025.

The past year has seen heightened uncertainty due to various factors, including trade policies and fluctuating immigration patterns. As a result, many industries face stagnated job growth, with notable exceptions in health care and leisure and hospitality sectors, which have been thriving amidst economic disparities.

Sectors Driving Job Growth

Health care and leisure and hospitality account for 22% of total employment but contributed to 84% of the job gains from January to November 2025. Nela Richardson, chief economist at ADP, noted that these sectors reflect a K-shaped economy, where higher-income consumers continue to fuel spending.

Impact of Tariffs on Job Growth

The labor market’s imbalance intensified after President Trump’s significant tariff announcements in April 2025. Consequently, hiring plans dwindled, with a stark contrast in employment trends seen across various industries. Many sectors are currently experiencing what experts refer to as a “hiring recession.”

Current Labor Market Data

Recent data signifies a stagnant labor environment. The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey from the BLS indicated a decline in hiring activity to the lowest level in over a decade, excluding pandemic-related anomalies. Despite this, layoff rates remained low, indicating mixed dynamics in job turnover.

Future Outlook for Hiring

• In December, job cut announcements fell to a 17-month low, with 35,553 layoffs reported.
• Hiring announcements were the most robust seen in December since 2022.

These trends suggest a potentially positive shift in the labor market. David Michael Tinsley, senior economist at Bank of America Institute, stated that while hiring remains subdued, there are signs that the worst phase of the economic downturn might be subsiding.