January 2026 Update: Immigration Flows’ Macroeconomic Impact for 2025-2026
The immigration landscape in the United States has undergone significant changes since the beginning of 2025, coinciding with the second Trump administration. These shifts have resulted in a notable decrease in net migration, which is expected to continue through 2026.
January 2026 Update: Immigration Flows’ Macroeconomic Impact for 2025-2026
Net migration in the U.S. was projected to be close to zero or negative for the year 2025, marking a trend not seen in the past 50 years. Estimates suggest that net migration could range from -295,000 to -10,000 in 2025. Moreover, the forecast for 2026 anticipates net migration may remain in the negative, with projections between -925,000 and +185,000.
Factors Influencing Immigration Flows
The drop in immigration has several implications for the economy. The U.S. has experienced a decline in the working-age population growth, as immigration has historically been a key driver of labor force expansion. From 2022 to 2024, the country saw a surge in immigration that helped stimulate job growth. However, the contrasting decline observed in 2025 is expected to lead to weaker growth in employment levels.
- Breakeven Employment Growth: In the latter half of 2025, the estimated breakeven employment growth required to maintain a stable unemployment rate was between 20,000 and 50,000 jobs per month.
- GDP Impact: The reduced immigration rates are projected to dampen GDP growth by approximately $60 billion to $110 billion over 2025 and 2026.
Immigration Flow Estimates for 2025 and 2026
Estimates for immigration inflows are categorized under “low” and “high” scenarios:
- Green Card Issuance: The U.S. is expected to issue between 560,000 and 575,000 green cards in 2025, a significant drop from 670,000 in 2024. By 2026, inflows may further decline to around 490,000 under the low scenario.
- Refugee Admissions: 2025 figures for refugees are estimated between 7,600 and 12,000, with numbers expected to fall to between 1,200 and 7,500 in 2026.
- Temporary Visas: In 2025, non-immigrant visa inflows are projected between 1.94 and 1.99 million. These numbers could also see further reductions in 2026 due to policy constraints.
The incoming administration has significantly altered the refugee program, which has curtailed refugee admissions, contributing to the decline in immigration flows.
Outflows and Removals
Outflows continue to be difficult to assess accurately. There were an estimated 310,000 to 315,000 removals in 2025. This figure is reflective of a shift in demographics, with most deportations occurring from the interior rather than from border crossings.
Labor Market and Economic Implications
The decline in immigration is projected to adversely affect employment levels and overall economic growth. Job growth consistent with full employment is estimated to be significantly lower than historical averages:
- For 2026, monthly employment growth could average between -20,000 and +20,000 under the low immigration scenario.
- In contrast, the high immigration scenario predicts an average of 10,000 to 50,000 jobs per month.
Consumer spending is also anticipated to decrease due to a shrinking immigrant population, further impacting GDP. The overall effect on GDP growth in 2025 is estimated at a reduction of 0.2 to 0.3 percentage points, continuing into 2026.
Conclusion
The U.S. is expected to face continued challenges in migration policy and economic implications resulting from these changes. As immigration rates fall, the broader labor market may experience prolonged weaknesses. The net migration figures for 2025 and 2026 highlight a crucial understanding of the relationship between immigration flows and macroeconomic performance.
