China Steps In Amid New Sanctions on Russian Oil Affecting India, Turkey

Recent developments in the oil market signal a shift caused by new sanctions on Russian oil, particularly affecting countries like India and Turkey. The European Union’s latest measures aim to curtail revenues fueling Russia’s military engagement in Ukraine.

New Sanctions on Russian Oil

On January 6, 2026, a Panamanian-flagged tanker, the Bela 6, was spotted in Izmit, Turkey, pumping nearly 100,000 tons of Russian crude oil. This delivery came as the Turkish refinery Tupras significantly reduced Russian imports by 69% in December 2025, ahead of EU sanctions set to take effect on January 21, 2026. The sanctions are part of a broader EU initiative designed to tighten the grip on Russian oil revenues, aiming to impact refineries that import Russian crude.

Context of the Sanctions

• The EU ban stems from its 18th sanctions package announced in July.
• Major Indian refineries have preemptively opted out of Russian crude purchases.
• Turkey has reduced imports by 20–30% as sanctions loom.

According to the Center for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA), India’s imports of Russian oil plummeted by 29% in December 2025, marking their lowest level since the G7 price cap was implemented three years prior.

Challenges and Loopholes

Despite the sanctions, some critics warn that refineries may attempt to obscure the origin of the crude they use. CREA analyst Isaac Levi highlighted that certain refineries, like the Kulevi refinery in Georgia, could exploit loopholes by refining and shipping products under different pretenses.

China’s Potential Role

As India and Turkey scale back on Russian crude, China is positioned to absorb part of this excess supply. CREA’s data indicates a 23% uptick in China’s crude imports from Russia in December 2025, as several Urals grade oil tankers reportedly pivoted to Chinese ports. Erica Downs from Columbia University noted that small, independent refineries, or “teapots,” are likely to take advantage of discounted Russian oil.

• Teapot refineries account for about 20% of China’s refining capacity.
• These refineries are more willing to deal in sanctioned oil due to lesser exposure to the US dollar financial system.

While not all surplus oil may be absorbed by China, the allure of discounted crude is significant for these refineries. CREA analyst Levi stated that while the sanctions aim to diminish Russia’s export revenues, stricter enforcement measures are necessary to achieve lasting impacts.

Conclusion

As geopolitical tensions continue to shape the oil market, countries are compelled to navigate these complexities. The evolving situation surrounding sanctions on Russian oil presents both challenges and opportunities for nations like India, Turkey, and China.