Ray Dalio Warns of 2025 ‘New Monetary Order’: Could Gold Replace the US Dollar?
In a warning from April 2025, investor Ray Dalio predicted a significant shift in the global economic landscape. Amid rising US debt and escalating tariffs, Dalio suggested the onset of a new monetary order could be on the horizon. His remarks have gained traction in early 2026 as economic indicators point toward a slowdown in global growth and shifts toward de-dollarization.
Key Factors Influencing Monetary Order Changes
Dalio identified several critical forces that may destabilize the current monetary framework, including:
- Debt cycles
- Internal conflicts
- Geopolitical shifts
- Acts of nature
- Technological advancements
These elements contribute to disruptions that extend beyond a simple recession. Dalio focused on the increasing US fiscal strains, which have raised concerns about long-term economic stability.
Concerns Over Rising US Debt
Dalio has specifically highlighted the repercussions of the US debt accumulation, which has reached alarming levels. The national debt is nearing $38 trillion, with a debt-to-GDP ratio of 124%. In the first quarter of FY2026, the US borrowed $602 billion, a trend that raises significant concerns about the sustainability of economic growth.
He remarked that tariffs imposed on China could further damage production capabilities, comparing their impact to “rocks thrown into the production system.” The fear is that these tariffs may lead to losses in global efficiency and potentially escalate into crises similar to those experienced in 1971 or 2008.
Global Economic Impacts
According to Dalio, the economic landscape is contracting, with global growth forecasts dropping to between 2.7% and 2.9%. In particular, trade is affected, declining by 2.2%, impacting labor markets in Europe and China the most. While tariffs may aim at protecting domestic industries, Dalio argues they are executed in a manner that fosters international conflict.
The Movement Toward De-Dollarization
The concept of de-dollarization is gaining momentum, evidenced by cooperative efforts among BRICS nations. For instance, India has proposed linked digital currencies and initiatives like “BRICS Pay,” aimed at reducing dependence on the US dollar.
Central Banks Increasing Gold Reserves
Amid these shifts, central banks are making significant moves to increase their gold reserves. In 2026, global gold reserves approached nearly $4 trillion, surpassing US Treasury holdings, which stood at $3.9 trillion. This marks the first time since 1996 that gold reserves have exceeded US Treasury assets, reflecting a tangible shift in asset diversification strategies away from dollar dependency.
As the economic landscape evolves, the potential for a new monetary order poses questions about the future of the US dollar as the world’s reserve currency. Investors and analysts alike are encouraged to stay informed and consult experts regarding these significant shifts in global finance.
