Alberta’s Population May Exceed British Columbia’s by 2038: StatsCan Forecasts
Recent forecasts by Statistics Canada indicate that Alberta’s population may overtake British Columbia’s by 2038. This projection is based on ten different scenarios for Canada’s population trends, with nine scenarios suggesting Alberta will surpass British Columbia by 2050.
Alberta’s Projected Population Growth
The key demographic insights were provided by Statistics Canada demographer Jonathan Chagnon. He noted that if current trends continue, Alberta could experience rapid population growth due to factors such as immigration.
Factors Contributing to Growth
- Interprovincial Migration: Alberta attracts many newcomers, particularly young individuals.
- Natural Increase: Birth rates in Alberta currently outpace death rates.
Mark Parsons, chief economist of ATB Financial, emphasized that Alberta benefits from a youthful population. This demographic advantage arises as many baby boomers retire, creating a need for a robust workforce.
Challenges Ahead
Despite the anticipated growth, Alberta faces challenges related to infrastructure and housing. Parsons highlighted that while growth may not match the rapid increases seen in previous years, pressure will remain on public services, schools, and employment rates.
Housing Supply Concerns
Scott Fash, CEO of BILD Alberta, pointed out that the building industry is prepared for population increases. He noted, however, that sufficient land must be available for development to meet demand. His experience indicates that cities like Calgary have struggled with land availability during previous growth phases.
| City | Population Growth Challenges |
|---|---|
| Calgary | Struggled with insufficient new communities during the last housing boom in 2022. |
| Edmonton | Similar pressures as Calgary, requiring focus on mid-sized cities for population distribution. |
Moving forward, Fash advocates for supporting mid-sized cities to alleviate population pressures on major urban centers, ensuring a balanced growth across Alberta.
As Alberta’s demographic landscape evolves, the implications for the economy and infrastructure will be significant, signaling a transformative period for the province.
