Sudden Stratospheric Warming in February Could Trigger Colder Weather
Recent forecasts suggest that February 2026 could experience a significant Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) event. This phenomenon may lead to major disruptions in the stratospheric polar vortex, potentially resulting in colder weather across the Northern Hemisphere.
Understanding Sudden Stratospheric Warming
Sudden Stratospheric Warming is characterized by a rapid increase in temperature within the stratosphere, particularly over the Arctic region. Current weather models, including those from ECMWF and GFS, predict a temperature rise of 40–50°C in just a few days. Such a dramatic change could weaken and possibly split the polar vortex into two separate vortices.
Potential Impacts of the SSW
- Timing: The significant effects from this SSW could manifest 2–6 weeks after the event, likely influencing weather patterns in North America and Europe.
- Cold Snaps: The breakdown of the polar vortex may increase the frequency of cold snaps and stalled weather systems across these regions.
- Weather Patterns: The model data indicates that warm Arctic temperatures may lead to extreme weather patterns, such as blocking high-pressure systems.
Surface impacts typically emerge 10 to 20 days after peak stratospheric warming, suggesting that colder conditions could prevail throughout February and into early March.
Forecast Models and Expected Changes
The GFS operational run and the associated ensemble mean predict a reversal of high-altitude winds beginning on February 9. These winds, known as the polar night jet, may slow down and even reverse direction, indicating a major SSW event.
Historical Context and Considerations
Historically, about two-thirds of major SSWs that result in a split polar vortex initiate severe cold spells in the UK and Ireland. However, this does not guarantee immediate wintry weather. Past instances, such as the “Beast from the East” in late February 2018, highlight the variability of outcomes following an SSW.
- Weather Dependency: The outcomes largely depend on the existing weather patterns when the SSW occurs.
- Vortex Trajectories: The direction in which the daughter vortices drift will significantly influence whether cold spells develop, especially over the UK.
Conclusion
As we anticipate this potential Sudden Stratospheric Warming in February 2026, monitoring the developments in weather patterns will be crucial. Understanding the implications of the polar vortex behavior will help predict emerging cold weather trends across the Northern Hemisphere.
