Most Americans Believe Economy Declined Under Trump Compared to Biden
A recent Harvard CAPS–Harris Poll reveals a significant shift in American sentiment regarding the national economy under President Donald Trump compared to his predecessor, Joe Biden. A slim majority, 53 percent, now believe the economy is worse off under Trump, highlighting a pivotal moment as we approach the midterm elections. This change indicates more than just statistical drift; it reveals a deeper narrative about voter expectations, economic realities, and political implications.
Economic Sentiment: A Tactical Hedge
The poll results, collected between January 28-29, 2026, among 2,000 registered voters, show a notable three-point decline in approval for Trump’s economic management since December 2025. This movement serves as a tactical hedge against his previous claims of economic competence—a key message Trump relied upon for his campaign strategy. As Trump’s administration emphasizes metrics like “cooling inflation” and “accelerating GDP growth,” voters appear increasingly skeptical of these assertions, attributing the current economic malaise more to his policies than to Biden’s governance.
Key Shifts in Public Perceptions
- 63 percent of participants believe the current economic state is primarily due to Trump’s administration.
- A reversal in presidential performance perception: 51 percent now favor Biden over Trump compared to 2025.
- Only 38 percent of voters feel the country is overall on the right track, underscoring persistent national pessimism.
| Stakeholder | Before Poll (December) | After Poll (January) |
|---|---|---|
| Registered Voters | 51% Trump Better, 49% Biden Better | 51% Biden Better, 49% Trump Better |
| Those Identifying Economy as Strong | 53% | 51% |
| Those Identifying Economy as Weak | 47% | 49% |
The Broader Political Context
This evolving economic narrative is set against a backdrop of political polarization. As indicated by Republican pollster Daron Shaw, the Trump administration faces hurdles not only from a unified Democratic opposition but also from persistent inflation, which remains a top concern for voters. The fact that economic evaluations often reflect historical trends suggests that temporary price hikes can create long-lasting shifts in public perception, independent of wage growth or unemployment rates.
Localized Ripple Effects
The implications of these polling trends extend beyond U.S. borders, impacting economic sentiments in markets such as the UK, Canada, and Australia, where political stability and economic management are front and center in national dialogues. Voter sentiment in these regions may increasingly mirror U.S. anxieties, pressuring global economic policies and trade relations in ways yet to be fully assessed.
Projected Outcomes
Looking forward, analysts predict several pivotal developments:
- Economic Messaging Strategies: Political campaigns are likely to emphasize affordability and wage stabilization, shaping future electoral dynamics.
- Voter Turnout: Depending on perceptions of economic strength, turnout may become a decisive factor in congressional control, with late-breaking economic sentiments swaying undecided voters.
- Continued Political Polarization: As key issues like inflation continue to dominate discussions, the potential for volatile opinion shifts remains high, affecting both Republican and Democratic strategies moving into the midterms.
The current polling trends signal that Trump’s economic narrative might no longer resonate as strongly as it once did, possibly reshaping the strategies of both parties as they engage with an increasingly cynical voter base. Maintaining a close watch on economic indicators and sentiment could be the key to electoral success—or failure—in the upcoming months.
