Nio Forecasts First Quarterly Profit, Boosting Shareholder and Car Owner Confidence
Nio, a prominent Chinese electric vehicle (EV) manufacturer, has forecasted its first profitable quarter by late 2025. This projection, set under both non-GAAP and GAAP standards, has instilled confidence among shareholders and owners alike.
Nio’s Profit Projections
On Thursday, Nio announced that it expects its adjusted operating profit for the fourth quarter of 2025 to fall between approximately RMB 700 million ($100 million) and RMB 1.2 billion ($172 million). This would mark Nio’s first quarterly non-GAAP operating profit after reporting a significant loss of RMB 5.54 billion in the same period of 2024. Under GAAP standards, Nio’s anticipated profit ranges from about RMB 200 million ($29 million) to RMB 700 million ($100 million).
Driving Factors Behind Profitability
- Sales Growth: The forecasted profits are largely attributed to sustained sales growth, aided by a favorable product mix.
- Operational Efficiency: Ongoing cost reduction initiatives and operational improvements have played vital roles in achieving these figures.
- Product Performance: The newly launched third-generation ES8 has significantly boosted sales and margins for Nio.
Sales Data and Market Challenges
Nio’s third-generation ES8, launched on September 20, 2025, has been a game changer. Deliveries of this model began the next day, and by January 30, it hit a milestone of 60,000 units delivered. In January alone, Nio delivered 17,646 units, accounting for 65% of its total deliveries.
Monthly Retail Sales Forecast
| Month | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| January | 615 | 446 | 17,646 |
| February | 414 | 479 | – |
| March | 802 | 514 | – |
| April | 773 | 539 | – |
| May | 937 | 292 | – |
| June | 882 | 839 | – |
| July | 822 | 1,090 | – |
| August | 857 | 77 | – |
| September | 766 | 2,803 | – |
| October | 747 | 6,703 | – |
| November | 572 | 10,689 | – |
| December | 1,001 | 22,258 | – |
Future Outlook
Despite optimistic projections for late 2025, Nio faces challenges in early 2026. The first quarter typically sees lower demand in the Chinese automotive market. Analysts from UBS highlight concerns that rising raw material costs could affect profit margins if absorbed by manufacturers.
Nio plans to launch additional models, with two new ones expected in Q2 and one in Q3 of 2026. The company remains dedicated to navigating the evolving landscape of the EV market amid fluctuating demand and operational challenges.
