China Responds to Ruginienė’s Statement First

This week, Lithuanian Prime Minister Inga Ruginienė made headlines by claiming that Lithuania “jumped in front of the train” in its pursuit of diplomatic and economic relations with Taiwan. During a press conference, she hinted at “first small steps” towards restoring ties with China. China’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson, Lin Jian, reiterated that “the door remains open” for communication and expressed hope that Lithuania would correct its course toward improving bilateral relations.

The shift in Lithuania’s diplomatic stance follows a significant deterioration in ties after the establishment of a Taiwanese Representative Office in Vilnius in late 2021, which led to severe Chinese diplomatic and economic sanctions. Notably, China downgraded its diplomatic representation with Lithuania from an ambassador to a Chargé d’affaires. This reconfiguration illustrates Beijing’s persistence in reinforcing its claim that Taiwan is merely a province of China.

Contextual Background: Lithuania and China

Tensions between Lithuania and China have escalated, especially after Lithuania’s withdrawal from the “17+1” cooperation format with China. Former Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis urged other European Union nations to follow suit, yet only neighboring Estonia and Latvia mirrored Lithuania’s actions. In Gintautas Paluckas’s governmental program, China was identified as a challenge to Lithuania’s foreign and security policy, yet Ruginienė’s cabinet appears to have softened its rhetoric, committing to rekindle relations with Beijing.

President Gitanas Nausėda previously stated he saw no issue with the government’s aim to restore closer ties with China, but he emphasized that both parties need to desire this shift.

The Domestic Debate: Interpretations of Ruginienė’s Remarks

Ruginienė’s assertion that Lithuania should have been quieter and not distinguish itself based on values was met with criticism from Viktorija Čmilytė-Nielsen, leader of the Liberal Movement Party. She argues that the Prime Minister speaks boldly yet lacks depth in her understanding of the issues at stake. The core of her argument raises fundamental questions about Lithuania’s alignment with authoritarian regimes and the implications that may hold for its position within the family of democratic nations.

• Čmilytė-Nielsen insists that the so-called “values-based policy” is the most pragmatic path for small countries like Lithuania.
• She contends that adopting a non-values-based approach risks placing Lithuania in a subordinate position, leading to uncertainty in relations with authoritarian states.

Localized Ripple Effects: Global Implications

This development in Lithuania holds significant implications not only regionally but also internationally. The ripples of a potential thaw in relations between Lithuania and China could influence global dynamics, particularly among Western nations such as the US, UK, Canada, and Australia. Their responses to China’s growing influence could be reshaped by how Lithuania navigates this complex terrain.

Projected Outcomes

Looking ahead, several developments are anticipated:

• Increase in Diplomatic Engagement: Watch for upcoming meetings or joint statements between Lithuanian and Chinese officials that could signal an effort to rebuild trust.
• Economic Adjustments: Lithuania may initiate trade discussions with China, which could lead to alleviation of existing sanctions, impacting various sectors.
• Shifts in EU Dynamics: Other EU nations may reconsider their approaches to China based on Lithuania’s evolving strategy, influencing broader geopolitical alignments.