2026 Kentucky Derby Trail: Feb. 10 Highlights Rising and Falling Contenders
The path to the 2026 Kentucky Derby is becoming increasingly competitive as recent performances reshape the horizon for potential contenders. This article highlights notable risers and fallers based on the latest action on the Triple Crown trail.
Heating Up Contenders
1. Silent Tactic
Silent Tactic has emerged as a frontrunner following a stunning victory in the $1 million Southwest Stakes held on February 6 at Oaklawn Park. The colt made a remarkable jump from 12-1 odds, checking in with a career-best 88 Beyer Speed Figure. This performance marked a significant improvement from his previous outings.
2. Renegade
Renegade solidified his status as a serious contender with a strong win in the $210,000 Sam F. Davis Stakes on February 7. As a 6-5 favorite, he delivered an exceptional performance, earning a career-high 92 Beyer Speed Figure. His bloodlines suggest a capability to excel at 1 ¼ miles, which bodes well for his Derby prospects.
3. Plutarch
After switching back to dirt for his 3-year-old debut, Plutarch proved his mettle in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes on February 7 at Santa Anita Park. He won by three-quarters of a length, earning a 90 Beyer Speed Figure while showcasing impressive racing tactics against strong competition.
- Noteworthy Performances:
- Nine-horse field in the Southwest Stakes had a standout finish, with Silent Tactic coming from behind for significant victory.
- Renegade completed the final quarter-mile in a quick 24.30 seconds, confirming his Derby potential.
- Plutarch showed determination against a Grade 1 winner and overcame pacing challenges early in the race.
Contenders Cooling Down
1. Strategic Risk
Following a disappointing 10th-place finish in the Southwest Stakes, Strategic Risk’s future is uncertain. His trainer, Mark Casse, expressed concerns about the impact of weather and training interruptions on his performance. Casse plans to run him again in the Rebel Stakes on March 1, provided he recovers adequately.
2. Incredibolt
Incredibolt finished last in the Holy Bull Stakes, causing concerns among his supporters. Once viewed as a strong contender, his lackluster performance raises questions. Trainer Riley Mott remains hopeful, suggesting that it may have been an off day or an issue with the racecourse surface.
3. Desert Gate
Desert Gate returned from a four-month layoff but finished fourth in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes. Despite previous strong performances, his recent showing leaves doubts about his position among top contenders in the 3-year-old division.
Other Notable Developments
Outside of these performances, the Derby trail faced a setback with the injury to Ted Noffey, the reigning champion 2-year-old male. His absence will be felt in the upcoming Triple Crown races as he recovers for a summer return.
- Maiden Winners:
- D’code, Cannoneer, and Confessional struggled in stakes debuts.
- Emerging Market showcased potential with a debut win at Tampa Bay Downs.
The evolving status of these horses on the 2026 Kentucky Derby trail illustrates the unpredictable nature of thoroughbred racing. As the season progresses, watch for upcoming races to reveal new potentials and storylines.
