JPMorgan Cuts Coinbase Price Target Ahead of Thursday Earnings Release
The recent downturn in the cryptocurrency market has heavily impacted Coinbase (COIN), one of the leading cryptocurrency exchanges in the United States. Since reaching a record above $126,000 for Bitcoin in early October, Coinbase’s stock has dropped by over 50%. Notably, it has seen a 27% decline just in 2026.
JPMorgan Adjusts Coinbase Price Target
In light of these developments, JPMorgan analyst Ken Worthington has reduced his price target for Coinbase, dropping it from $399 to $290. This adjustment comes ahead of the company’s fourth-quarter earnings report, scheduled for release Thursday after market close. Despite the price cut, Worthington maintains a bullish outlook, suggesting a potential upside of 75% from Coinbase’s current price, which stands at $165.50.
Projected Financial Outcomes
Worthington forecasts an adjusted EBITDA (Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation, and Amortization) of $734 million for the quarter, down from $801 million reported in the previous quarter. This decline is attributed to several factors:
- Lower trading volumes
- Weaker cryptocurrency prices
- Slower growth of USDC stablecoin balances
Trading Volume and Revenue Estimates
For the upcoming quarter, Worthington projects spot trading volume to be around $263 billion. Additionally, he notes a decrease in USDC in circulation, forecasting stablecoin-related revenue of $312 million. However, this decrease will be partially offset by the contributions from Deribit, the crypto derivatives exchange acquired by Coinbase in August. Including Deribit, JPMorgan estimates total transaction revenue to reach $1.06 billion, with Deribit contributing approximately $117 million from an estimated trading volume of $586 billion.
Comparison with Previous Performance
Last quarter, Coinbase reported $1 billion in transaction revenue. Conversely, this quarter’s expected revenue from subscriptions and services is estimated at $670 million, falling short of Coinbase’s earlier guidance range of $710 million to $790 million. This shortfall is attributed to:
- Softer cryptocurrency prices
- Lower staking yields
- Slower growth in USDC
Operational Cost Management
Worthington anticipates that operating expenses will come in lower than previously guided as Coinbase actively works to manage costs.
Analyst Insights and Market Reactions
Barclays analyst Benjamin Budish shares a more conservative view, positioning his estimates roughly 10% below consensus for adjusted EBITDA. This adjustment reflects weaker retail trading and blockchain rewards revenue. Budish cited a 15% quarter-over-quarter fall in retail crypto volumes reported by Robinhood, which typically mirrors Coinbase’s trading patterns. In contrast, Compass Point analyst Ed Engel takes an even more bearish stance, predicting disappointing results for the subscription and services segment. He notes that overall revenue remains closely tied to the fluctuations in cryptocurrency prices.
As the market awaits Coinbase’s earnings report, investor sentiment remains cautious, with several analysts predicting challenges ahead due to the prevailing market conditions.
