TransUnion 2026 Originations Forecast Predicts Steady Growth with Moderate Expansion
TransUnion’s recent forecast indicates a steady growth in originations across various credit sectors into 2026. The report highlights significant shifts in consumer credit behavior and the evolving risk landscape for lenders.
Key Insights from the TransUnion 2026 Originations Forecast
As we move into 2026, TransUnion’s Q4 2025 Credit Industry Insights Report reveals notable trends in credit cards, personal loans, auto loans, and mortgages. The forecast anticipates moderate expansion in these areas, indicating a healthier credit environment.
Credit Card Market Trends
- Bankcard Originations: Increase of 11.7% year-over-year in Q3 2025.
- Total Balances: Grew 4.2% to $1.15 trillion.
- Delinquency Rate: Borrower-level delinquencies rose to 2.58%, showing a modest climb.
- New Credit Lines: Increased by 9.2%, focusing on below-prime accounts.
Unsecured Personal Loans Surge
- Record Originations: 7.2 million in Q3 2025, with subprime borrowers leading the growth.
- Overall Balances: Rose to $276 billion, with 26.4 million consumers carrying a balance.
- Delinquency Rate: Increased to 3.99%, the largest year-over-year growth since early 2023.
Mortgage and Home Equity Growth
- Mortgage Originations: Increased by 6.5% year-over-year to 1.34 million in Q3 2025.
- Home-Equity Originations: Grew 14.3% to 714,000 loans.
- Delinquency Rate: Mortgage delinquencies rose to 1.58%, marking a 15th consecutive quarter of increases.
Auto Loan Developments
- Auto Loan Originations: Increased by 6.2% year-over-year, totaling 6.7 million in Q3 2025.
- Average Monthly Payments: New vehicles averaged $782, up 3.4% year-over-year.
- Delinquency Rate: 60+ days past due reached 1.50%, signaling a slow rise in delinquencies.
Conclusion
The TransUnion 2026 originations forecast illustrates a shifting landscape. Lenders are adapting by enhancing risk assessment tools as consumer credit trends stabilize. These factors are crucial for maintaining access to credit across all risk tiers as we advance into the new year.
