Canada’s Carriers Choose New Preferred Neighbor Over the US
Recent developments highlight a significant shift in the Canadian airline industry, wherein carriers are favoring Mexico over the United States. This change is evidenced by an increase in routes and seat capacity to Mexican destinations, contrasting the decrease in service to US locations. Such a shift is not merely seasonal; it reflects deeper economic and political sentiments.
Shift in Airline Capacity: Canada to Mexico
In a notable expansion, Canada’s flagship carrier, Air Canada, is increasing seat capacity to Mexico by 18% for the summer of 2026 compared to the previous year. This strategic decision correlates with ongoing trade diversification efforts between Canada and Mexico. Air Canada’s new year-round route from Montréal–Trudeau International Airport to Guadalajara illustrates the commitment to sustained service, highlighting a shift in focus from US travel.
Details of Air Canada’s Expansion
- Route Additions: New nonstop flights to Guadalajara.
- Increased Frequencies:
- Montréal to Cancún: 11 weekly flights (up by 4)
- Toronto to Monterrey: 4 weekly flights (up by 1)
- Vancouver to Mexico City: 11 weekly flights (up by 4)
- Vancouver to Puerto Vallarta: 2 weekly flights (up by 1)
Air Canada emphasizes that these enhancements not only bolster air travel but also strengthen economic ties with Mexico.
Broader Industry Trends
This shift is not isolated to Air Canada. Other Canadian airlines have also ramped up their services to Mexico. Data from Cirium reveals that capacity on routes to Mexico surged by 46% in the first half of 2026 compared to the previous year. In contrast, service to the US has declined, with the scheduled capacity dropping significantly.
Increased Flights to Mexico by Canadian Airlines
| Carrier | H1 2025 Flights | H1 2026 Flights | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Air Canada | 5,378 | 6,330 | 18% |
| WestJet | 7,798 | 12,376 | 59% |
| Air Transat | 2,208 | 2,450 | 11% |
| Porter Airlines | – | 1,268 | – |
| Total | 15,384 | 22,424 | 46% |
Decline in US-Bound Flights
As Canadian airlines increase their Mexican routes, flights to the US are being significantly reduced. Over 6,000 US-bound flights were eliminated in the first half of 2026, marking a 6% decline from last year. Notably, Air Transat has removed all of its US routes entirely, while Air Canada also sees a reduction in flights to the US market.
Decrease in Canada-US Flights by Canadian Airlines
| Carrier | H1 2025 Flights | H1 2026 Flights | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Air Canada | 65,820 | 64,454 | -2% |
| WestJet | 19,338 | 15,878 | -18% |
| Air Transat | 1,196 | 682 | -43% |
| Porter Airlines | 13,262 | 12,546 | -5% |
| Total | 99,616 | 93,560 | -6% |
Implications for Travelers and Economy
The reallocation of flights towards Mexico signifies a change in travel preferences and economic strategies among Canadian carriers. Furthermore, data indicates that 62% of Canadians are now less inclined to visit the US, with the current political climate being a significant factor. This trend could have lasting effects on the travel industry and economic ties between Canada and the US.
As Canadian airline capacities continue to shift, the focus on Mexico underscores a broader strategy of trade diversification and economic resilience.
