Bitcoin Poised for $85K Surge as CME Traders Reduce Short Positions

Bassyonni

Published: February 23, 2026 2:42 AM ET

Recent changes in the Bitcoin futures market hint at a potential price surge. As speculators shift their positions, the conditions for a recovery appear favorable.

Bitcoin Poised for $85K Surge

In April 2025, Bitcoin’s price bottomed out when CME futures traders changed their outlook to a bullish stance. A similar trend is emerging in 2026, suggesting an impending recovery.

Market Shifts and Positioning

Non-commercial Bitcoin futures traders reduced their net positions to approximately -1,600 contracts.
Last month, they had a net position of around +1,000 contracts.
The shift indicates a transition from net short to long positions among large investors.

According to a recent CFTC Commitment of Traders (COT) report, this adjustment by financial institutions such as hedge funds reflects a growing confidence among bulls over bears in the CME market.

Historical Context and Technical Indicators

Analysts note that past swings in trader positioning have often preceded significant price recoveries. For instance, after a similar reduction in net shorts in April 2025, Bitcoin rose by about 70%. In 2023, a price increase exceeding 190% also followed similar market conditions.

As of February, Bitcoin is once again defending its critical 200-week exponential moving average (EMA), which currently stands near $68,350. This moving average has historically acted as a floor during extended downturns, marking the end of selling trends in 2015, 2018, and 2020.

Indicators of Potential Recovery

The weekly relative strength index (RSI) for Bitcoin remains in oversold territory, suggesting that the selling pressure may be nearing its end. A strong rebound from the 200-week EMA could catalyze a rise towards the 100-week EMA, with a target price around $85,000 by April.

Cautions from Analysts

Despite these optimistic signals, analysts urge caution. Tom McClellan emphasizes that the shift in trader positions is a condition rather than a definitive signal for recovery. The market could still experience fluctuations before establishing a sustainable low.

There are concerns about a scenario similar to 2022, where Bitcoin fell over 40% after dropping below the 200-week EMA under comparable conditions. Should this pattern repeat in 2026, it could lead to Bitcoin prices declining toward the $40,000 mark, representing a 60% decrease from its all-time high of approximately $126,270.

Some analysts, like those from Kaiko, predict that Bitcoin may find support around the $40,000 to $50,000 range based on historical four-year cycles.