Cyclone Horacio Intensifies into Powerful Category 5 Storm

In the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Horacio has intensified into a powerful Category 5 storm. This development occurred on February 23, 2026, marking Horacio as the first Category 5 cyclone of the year. With recorded wind speeds reaching 160 mph, Horacio is significant not only for its strength but also for its implications on the upcoming Atlantic hurricane season.

Cyclone Horacio: A Powerful Category 5 Storm

Forecasters at the Joint Typhoon Warning Center report that while Horacio has peaked in intensity, it is expected to weaken as it moves into cooler waters. Importantly, this cyclone is located far from land, thus posing a minimal threat to people. However, it serves as a stark reminder that the Atlantic hurricane season begins in just three months.

Impact of El Niño on the Upcoming Hurricane Season

The anticipated El Niño phenomenon is poised to influence the strength and frequency of hurricanes during the 2026 season. This natural warming event typically reduces hurricane activity in the Atlantic, particularly in the Caribbean and Gulf regions. Yet, it can also lead to increased hurricane activity in the eastern and central Pacific. Andy Hazelton, an associate scientist at the University of Miami, notes that understanding the positioning of warm water in the Pacific will be crucial for predicting hurricane patterns.

Category 5 Storms: Historical Context

Globally, the average number of Category 5 storms per year is approximately 5. Horacio is noteworthy as it is the first cyclone of this intensity in the Southern Hemisphere since Cyclone Errol in April 2025. In 2025, there were a total of five Category 5 storms worldwide, including Hurricanes Melissa, Erin, and Humberto, alongside Typhoon Ragasa.

Interestingly, Andy Hazelton points out that several of the last three Category 5 hurricanes to impact the United States occurred during transitions into weak El Niño conditions. These storms include Camille in 1969, Andrew in 1992, and Michael in 2018.

Understanding Tropical Cyclones

• Tropical Cyclones: These storms are known by different names depending on the ocean basin. In the Atlantic, they are called hurricanes. In the western Pacific, they are referred to as typhoons. In the Indian Ocean, they are known simply as cyclones.
• Cyclone Season: The South Indian Ocean cyclone season generally spans from November to April, with favorable conditions for formation during these months.

As we approach the Atlantic hurricane season, monitoring storms like Horacio becomes increasingly crucial for understanding potential impacts and preparing for future storms.