Dow Futures Tonight: Iran War Shock Sends Markets Into Crisis Mode — Oil Spikes 5%, Gold Surges, Dow Futures Set to Open Sharply Lower

Sunday evening, March 1, 2026 — Wall Street is bracing for its most turbulent market open since the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic. Dow Jones futures, S&P 500 futures, and Nasdaq futures are all set to open sharply lower at 6:00 p.m. ET tonight after a weekend of war — US and Israeli strikes on Iran, Khamenei's confirmed death, Iranian missile attacks on Dubai, Bahrain, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Abu Dhabi, and the Strait of Hormuz's temporary closure. Here is everything investors need to know right now.

Dow Futures Tonight: What to Expect When Markets Open at 6 p.m. ET

The US decision to launch a massive and ongoing attack on Iran over the weekend is expected to have a major ripple effect on Wall Street Monday, shooting oil prices higher and sinking Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 futures.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 1.3%, the S&P 500 dropped 0.4%, and the Nasdaq dropped nearly 1% last week as investors were driven by geopolitical risk and inflation concerns — before the strikes even began. Tonight's futures open comes after two full days of war escalation on top of a market that was already sitting at a 3.5-week low.

Oil Futures Set to Spike $5–$10 Per Barrel When Trading Opens

Bob McNally, a former White House energy advisor, predicted crude future prices could rise by $5 to $7 per barrel when trading opens at 6 p.m. ET Sunday, if there is no sign of de-escalation. Iran is the fourth-largest oil producer in OPEC and could threaten to make the Strait of Hormuz — a narrow waterway that connects the Persian Gulf and the Arabian Sea — unsafe for commercial traffic. This could see oil prices spike above $100 per barrel. More than 14 million barrels per day flowed through the Strait in 2025, or a third of the world's total seaborne crude exports.

Brent crude futures closed at $72.48 on Friday, up nearly 2.5%. WTI ended the day at $67.02, up almost 2.8%. Some oil majors and top trading houses have already suspended crude oil and fuel shipments via the Strait of Hormuz because of the attacks.

Gold, Treasuries Surge — Bitcoin Crumbles as Safe Haven Narrative Dies

The fast-moving conflict across the Middle East is heightening investor anxiety and strengthening the case for safe-haven trades such as Treasuries, gold, and the Swiss franc.

Investors could also make another dash for gold, which has had a record run and is up 22% so far in 2026, and into silver, which has also been on a roll. Gold in COMEX is around $5,300 per ounce and analysts believe that safe-haven buying will push prices up if the conflict continues. Silver is trading above $93 per ounce and could test $95 — a clear breakout could push it toward $100. The outlier has been bitcoin, no longer seen as a haven. It fell 2% on Saturday and has shed more than a quarter of its value in two months.

Gulf Stock Markets Open Sunday — First Live Signal for Wall Street

Trading in bourses in the Middle East on Sunday, including Saudi Arabia and Qatar, will provide an initial indicator of investor sentiment. While these markets are highly correlated to oil prices, an escalating conflict could ripple through the economies. Ryan Lemand, chief executive officer of Neovision Wealth Management, said: "I suspect markets will be down if these hostilities continue through the day." Depending on the scale of the conflict, Gulf equities could drop by 3–5%.

Polymarket Traders Bet Record $529 Million on Iran War Outcome

Polymarket has rapidly become a hub for betting on the US-Iran conflict, with traders wagering on ceasefire dates, regime change, and potential US ground involvement. A contract on Khamenei leaving power by March 31 drew $45 million in volume, while a long-running market on whether the US would strike Iran has amassed $529 million — making it one of Polymarket's largest ever.

Onchain analytics firm Bubblemaps identified six wallets that collectively netted $1.2 million in profit by betting on a US strike on Iran by February 28 — the exact day the strikes occurred. Most of the wallets were funded within 24 hours of the attack and purchased "yes" shares hours before the military operation began. The largest single wallet turned roughly $61,000 into over $493,000 in profit. The SEC is expected to investigate the activity when US markets open Monday morning.

What Monday Morning Could Look Like for the Dow

The Dow Jones entered Friday's close already down on the week, with AI disruption fears, hot inflation data, and geopolitical jitters all weighing on sentiment before a single missile was fired. Futures on Dow Jones, as well as S&P 500 and Nasdaq, tend to respond dramatically to geopolitical news. There are early signs that the opening will be weak and crude futures could have an upsurge of up to 5–10% in case the escalation persists. Nevertheless, full-session trends are not always based on futures volatility — initial panic can be cooled by institutional flows and central bank expectations. The single biggest variable for Monday is whether Iran signals any willingness to de-escalate or whether strikes on Gulf infrastructure continue into a third consecutive day.