Dow Futures NOW OPEN: Down 622 Points — Oil Hits $79, Gold at $5,334, Wall Street in Full Risk-Off Mode
Sunday, March 1, 2026 — Dow Jones futures are trading live right now as of 6:00 p.m. ET and the opening picture is ugly. A weekend of war — US and Israeli strikes killing Supreme Leader Khamenei, Iranian missile attacks on Dubai, Bahrain, Qatar and Kuwait, and three confirmed American deaths — has sent equity futures sharply lower and oil surging toward $80 per barrel. Here is the complete market picture as futures open tonight.
Dow Futures Now: Down 622 Points in Extended Trade
Pre-market action has already been severe, with Dow Jones futures dropping another 622 points in extended trade after the initial strike news. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 1.3%, the S&P 500 dropped 0.4%, and the Nasdaq dropped nearly 1% last week — and that was before a single missile was fired on Saturday morning. The Sunday 6:00 p.m. ET open has confirmed those fears, with all three major US index futures in the red simultaneously.
The Sunday open will show whether that selling pressure continues or if a technical bounce emerges. The primary risk for equities remains a sharp, sustained spike in oil prices. The real threat is a severe physical closure of the Strait of Hormuz — if that occurs, it would force massive rerouting of tankers, likely sending crude past $90, delivering a lasting inflation shock and complicating Federal Reserve policy.
Oil Futures: Brent Set to Jump $10–$20 Per Barrel — Rystad Forecasts $120 Possible
Without signs of de-escalation over the weekend, prices could surge upward by as much as $10 to $20 per barrel when the market reopens Sunday night, Jorge León, head of geopolitical analysis at Rystad Energy, told Yahoo Finance. Kalshi prediction markets currently see a 79% likelihood that US crude oil hits at least $73 per barrel or more. US crude closed at $67.02 per barrel on Friday, having run up 17% so far this year in anticipation of a possible Iran attack.
Global benchmark Brent crude oil futures could spike by $20 when trading opens, Rystad Energy forecast Saturday. Tanker traffic through the Strait has already effectively come to a halt as shipping companies take precautionary measures. "Tankers are starting to build by the Strait of Hormuz, but nothing seems to be going through at the moment — tankers are definitely spooked," said Matt Smith, oil analyst at Kpler. The UBS analysts said it is possible that the market is looking at a material disruption that sends Brent spot prices above $120 per barrel.
Gold at $5,334 — Oil, Gold and Swiss Franc Are Tonight's Winners
On crypto-exchange Hyperliquid, which allows 24/7 trading, perpetual swap futures tied to oil jumped nearly 5% to $71.7 per barrel, while those for gold rose roughly 1.2% to $5,334 per troy ounce. The fast-moving conflict across the Middle East is heightening investor anxiety and strengthening the case for safe-haven trades such as Treasuries, gold, and the Swiss franc.
Silver is trading at a high above $93 per ounce and it might test $95. A clear breakout can push it toward $100 — a psychological level that will attract speculative momentum traders. The Iranian Rial collapsed to an unprecedented low of 1,749,500 per USD, a roughly 30% drop from the 1,350,000 per USD level seen at the start of January 2026.
OPEC+ Raises Production to Try to Calm Oil Markets — Analysts Skeptical
OPEC+ said early Sunday it would raise its daily output by 206,000 barrels a day after pausing incremental production increases earlier in the year. Rumors in the oil industry had suggested the bloc might significantly increase production quotas in an attempt to mute some upside pressure on prices Monday morning — but only marginally in the face of heightened geopolitical risk. The OPEC+ move has provided minimal comfort to traders tonight, with physical Strait of Hormuz disruption rendering any paper production increase largely symbolic.
The Binary Outcome That Defines Monday's Open
The setup remains binary: de-escalation and containment allow markets to stabilize, while a physical closure of the world's most critical oil artery triggers a deeper correction. For tactical traders, the watchlist is simple — monitor Iran's retaliation, watch for any operational disruption to the Strait of Hormuz itself, and track the Sunday futures open. A bounce from extended trade lows would signal the risk-off move is over.
Three US service members killed in Kuwait confirmed by CENTCOM this afternoon, IRGC claims on the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier unverified, and no diplomatic off-ramp visible tonight. Monday's opening bell on Wall Street at 9:30 a.m. ET promises to be one of the most closely watched market opens in years.
