Steve Daines withdraws as filing closes, reshaping Montana’s Senate contest
steve daines triggered a sudden turn in Montana’s U. S. Senate race as his name was withdrawn from the running when candidate filing closed at 5 p. m. ET and his status on the Montana Secretary of State’s website was updated to “withdrawn. ” The change came shortly after a morning announcement that former University of Montana President Seth Bodnar is running as an independent, backed by former U. S. Sen. Jon Tester.
What happens when Steve Daines is listed as “withdrawn” at the filing deadline?
The immediate development was procedural and public: as filing closed at 5 p. m. ET, the Montana Secretary of State’s website reflected Steve Daines as “withdrawn. ” That update effectively reframed the contest at the moment the candidate field was being finalized.
The shift also followed a separate announcement earlier the same day involving a new independent candidacy. Former University of Montana President Seth Bodnar entered the race as an independent, with backing from former U. S. Sen. Jon Tester. The timing linked two key moves—one candidacy appearing and one incumbent candidacy being removed—into a single day that altered the expected shape of the race.
In response to the withdrawal, outreach for comment was directed to Steve Daines’ office, with no additional details provided in the available context.
What if early polling had suggested a different race shape before the withdrawal?
Before the withdrawal update, the first public poll described in the available context indicated Steve Daines holding a lead over potential rivals as Democrats looked toward more conservative states in hopes of expanding the battleground for the November 2026 midterms. The field itself was described as still taking shape, with Democratic legislator Reilly Neill and Seth Bodnar both in the conversation as potential challengers in different configurations.
The American Pulse Research & Polling survey surveyed 607 likely voters and was released on February 23, 2026. It used a multimodal approach including live telephone interviews and text-to-web, and it listed a margin of error of plus or minus 3. 98 percentage points. In head-to-head scenarios presented in the poll, Steve Daines held a 19-point lead over Neill (56 percent to 37 percent) and a 14-point lead over Bodnar (54 percent to 40 percent) if Bodnar ran as a Democrat.
The poll also tested independent and three-way dynamics. If Bodnar ran as an independent and Democrats did not run a candidate, Steve Daines led 51 percent to 42 percent. In a three-way scenario, Steve Daines led with 52 percent, while Neill received 25 percent and Bodnar 16 percent. The poll write-up described a “prisoner’s dilemma” for Bodnar: he polled better as an independent than as a Democrat, but if Democrats still ran a candidate, the anti-Daines vote could split and his support could fall sharply.
Those polling snapshots were part of a broader picture painted in the context: Montana was described as generally seen as reliably Republican, while also having elected Democrats to statewide office in the past. The same context also noted that Steve Daines had received support from President Donald Trump and that early polling suggested Democrats faced a steep climb to flip the seat.
What happens next as Seth Bodnar runs as an independent backed by Jon Tester?
With Seth Bodnar now running as an independent backed by Jon Tester, and with steve daines no longer listed as a candidate following the filing-close update, attention shifts to how the finalized field will be defined and how the race’s competitive structure will evolve from here.
The context emphasizes that the presence or absence of multiple candidates can matter in Montana’s Senate math, particularly in scenarios where an independent bid intersects with a party nominee. The same day’s twin developments—Bodnar’s independent entry and the withdrawal status posted for Steve Daines—turn what had been framed as a contest centered on an incumbent’s position and potential challengers into a newly uncertain race structure that will be clarified by the filed candidates and the next measurable signals of voter preference.
