South Australia Election 2026: Labor set for record win as One Nation surges to second
South Australia Election 2026 is tipping toward a historic Labor victory, a final YouGov poll shows, with One Nation rising to second place and the Liberals collapsing to third. The poll, conducted ahead of the state vote, projects Labor on track for its highest-ever two-party preferred result and flags major shifts in regional voting. The snapshot explains why contests outside Adelaide have become the decisive battlegrounds.
What the South Australia Election 2026 poll shows
YouGov’s final poll forecasts Labor leading 59–41 on a two-party preferred basis against both the Liberals and One Nation, a swing of +4. 4% toward Labor. That 59–41 result would represent the largest two-party preferred result in the South Australian Labor Party’s history, even as Labor’s primary vote sits two points lower than at the last state election.
The Liberals are projected to finish third on a 19% primary vote, their lowest outcome since the coalition’s formation and beneath previous lows in other states. One Nation’s surge to a 22% primary vote places it second in the state for the first time, matching its best-ever state result. Support for One Nation is strongest outside Adelaide, where it leads with 27%, ahead of Labor at 24% and the Liberals at 21%.
Regional dynamics show a tight three-way contest when preferences are considered: a split of Labor 38%, One Nation 34% and Liberals 24% in those areas. Voter retention problems are acute for the Liberals — only 55% of those who backed the party at the last federal election intend to back it at state level, with 29% of that group now choosing One Nation and 10% choosing Labor. The Liberals also lost every seat in Adelaide at the last federal election, underscoring their vulnerability in urban electorates.
Immediate reactions
Paul Smith, Director of Public Data, YouGov, framed the shift bluntly: “Labor is set to secure the largest two-party preferred vote in the South Australian Labor Party’s history, while the Liberals are on track for their worst-ever result, finishing third on just 19%. One Nation’s surge to 22% places them second in the state for the first time, with particularly strong support in regional areas. “
On the drivers behind the move to One Nation, Smith said: “The key driver behind One Nation’s support is disillusionment with the major parties, with over half of its voters saying they feel unrepresented. ” He warned that for the major parties “the challenge is clear — winning back these voters will require better representation, not simply adopting One Nation’s policies. In regional seats, contests are shaping into highly competitive multi-candidate races, where outcomes will depend heavily on preference flows. “
Quick context and what’s next
The poll is the final public snapshot ahead of the state vote and crystallizes two linked trends: Labor’s dominance in Adelaide and One Nation’s regional advance, which together squeeze the Liberals into a distant third. The numbers point to a potential realignment of contested seats outside the capital where preference flows will decide many outcomes.
Expect campaign activity to intensify in regional electorates as parties chase preference deals and local representation pitches. The unfolding preference negotiations and vote-count will determine whether the projected margins hold — but for now the YouGov figures reshape expectations for the South Australia Election 2026.
