The writer reiterated a $20 trillion market-cap thesis for Nvidia and said that view implies roughly 310% upside over the next four years, while stressing the case now rests more on software, robotics and recurring revenue than on hardware alone.
The argument, the writer said, does not require Nvidia to reach $20 trillion on chips alone; instead the path depends on software advancements and recurring revenue tied to Nvidia’s lead in robotics and simulation. He added that Nvidia’s software business has become more important relative to hardware since 2023, and that the company’s hardware moat will become less effective over time.
That evolution matters because the writer’s original bull case seven years ago centered on the CUDA moat. At the time, Nvidia was roughly a $100 billion company trading near $3.15 on a split-adjusted basis, and the I/O Fund that held the position rode Nvidia through the entire seven-year journey. The I/O Fund’s Nvidia allocation was sometimes as high as 20%.
The writer reminded readers that he publicly defended Nvidia when the stock was down about 60% in 2022. He said the stock only recently turned positive in 2026, as benchmarks such as the QQQs and ETFs like IVES, GRNY and ARKK were also barely positive this year. The I/O Fund itself is up roughly 33% year to date, the writer said.
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He contrasted Nvidia with other winners in the fund’s portfolio. Bloom Energy, he said, is up about 1,100% since the fund’s initial entry. An optical-networking name flagged ahead of its 2026 surge has climbed nearly 300% year to date and roughly 650% since its lowest entry in November. A photonics position the writer doubled down on in January with a 10% allocation has gained more than 130% year to date.
Still, the writer reiterated his long-term conviction: he said he continues to believe Nvidia will reach $20 trillion by 2030 and noted much of the 310% return is likely to be back-half weighted in 2028 to 2030. He said Nvidia will remain the dominant system-level player in AI and cautioned that the CUDA moat will not vanish overnight.
The analytical case against Nvidia, the writer acknowledged, boils down to three pressures: the CUDA advantage matters less as inference workloads scale, custom silicon is taking share, and the delay in Rubin creates uncertainty. He also said Nvidia’s valuation is lower than its historic average, which limits some near-term upside, and that Nvidia’s 2026 setup may no longer be as rewarding as opportunities the writer can find elsewhere.
Even so, the writer argued nvda could still stand out in a volatile market if it continues to post stronger earnings growth than most large-cap tech. He paraphrased his long-held view that developers themselves will tend to narrow the field of competitors for processing units by coalescing around a universal platform that supports multiple frameworks, reinforcing Nvidia’s system position even as competition changes.
The conclusion the writer pressed was simple: he remains bullish to 2030 but expects the gains to be uneven and back-loaded, and he is reallocating within his fund toward smaller, higher-upside opportunities that have already delivered outsized returns this year.
