U.S. stocks edged higher on Monday as the S&P 500 rose 0.1% to a fresh record and the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.2% to an all-time high, even as Brent crude held above $100 a barrel and traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remained near zero on Monday morning.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 0.1% on the day, a small counterpoint to the headline-making gains in the broader indexes. West Texas Intermediate crossed $96 while Bitcoin pulled back nearly 2% over the past 24 hours to trade below $77,000 per token. Snap shares jumped 9% after Redburn Research upgraded the stock to a Buy and lifted its price target to $10 from $5.
Nic Puckrin, who has been tracking the cryptocurrency’s swings, warned that Bitcoin could fall much further without a deeper sell-off among miners and corporate holders of digital assets. He said he still expects a drop into the $55,700 to $58,200 range in the coming months unless a final flushout clears the way for a renewed bull phase.
Monday’s session followed a week in which the S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed at record highs, a run that has now continued into the new trading week despite persistent supply and geopolitical pressures on energy markets. Microsoft announced it would no longer have exclusive access to OpenAI’s lineup and that a revenue-sharing agreement with OpenAI is set to end, a development that arrives as most of the largest technology companies prepare to report quarterly results this week.
Markets were reacting to two competing impulses: reports that Iran has put forward a new proposal to lift its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and end the war, and the reality that traffic through the strategic waterway remained near zero on Monday morning. The apparent offer from Iran helped lift hopes for a de-escalation, yet oil prices stayed elevated, keeping inflation concerns alive for investors.
The Federal Reserve is due to begin a two-day policy meeting on Tuesday, and the central bank is widely expected to hold rates steady. That expectation has become the framing event for traders weighing corporate earnings and the ongoing price shock from energy markets: strong earnings could reinforce the market’s record highs, while stubbornly high oil could complicate the inflation outlook ahead of any future rate decisions.
Tension sits at the center of the tape. Equities hit fresh records even as commodities and geopolitical risk suggest more volatility ahead. Tech-sector plumbing is changing at the same time: Microsoft’s move away from exclusive access to OpenAI undercuts one of the advantages that helped shape valuations, and yet indexes containing those megacaps still pushed to new highs. Bitcoin’s retreat below $77,000, and Puckrin’s forecast of a substantial further slide, highlights a disconnect between glittering headline prices and underlying fragility.
Traders were reluctant to mint a new era of risk-taking on those mixed signals. Some parts of the market—like Snap after its upgrade—saw sharp, single-day moves; other indicators pointed to caution. Oil’s hold north of $100 and near-zero Strait of Hormuz traffic keep a clear floor under inflation worries even as indexes chase records.
The most consequential question now is whether corporate earnings and the Federal Reserve’s guidance this week can reconcile those contradictions: can results from major companies and a steady Fed meet the market’s appetite for upside while oil and geopolitical constraints continue to threaten inflation? How the Fed frames its outlook when the meeting ends will likely determine whether the newest records stick or evaporate into choppy trading in the weeks ahead.
