Rudy Gobert will be at the center of the matchup when the Minnesota Timberwolves and Denver Nuggets play Game 3 on Thursday night, the series tied 1-1.
The weight of that moment is in the numbers: through two games of this series Nikola Jokic is averaging 24.5 points, 9.5 assists and 14 rebounds per game, making 64 percent of his 2-point shots, and Denver is plus-10 when he is on the court. Yet the same sample shows Denver’s offense with Jokic on the floor is 1.1 percentage points below league average for the series — a clear drop from the regular season, when that figure was 11.8 percentage points above average.
The contrast with a recent playoff night underlines why Minnesota believes it can contain him. In Game 5 of the 2024 Western Conference semifinals, Jokic was handed his third MVP trophy by Adam Silver and finished with 40 points, 13 assists and zero turnovers — a reminder of the damage he can still do even when tightly guarded.
How Jokic is being used has changed. His on-ball percentage in these playoffs is 14.8 percent, down from 26.2 percent in the regular season, a sign Denver has often looked to generate offense with him off the ball as much as on it. That drop matters because it alters how defenders like Gobert can approach him without constantly leaving other threats.
The Timberwolves have made a clear defensive choice. Minnesota previously used Karl-Anthony Towns on Jokic so Gobert could play center field; the defense has aimed to deny Jokic the ball, limit his comfort spots, speed him up and bother him at the rim without fouling, according to the source. The result: fewer direct Jokic touches and a Denver attack that, so far in the series, has lost some of its regular-season efficiency when he is on the court.
There is internal pressure inside the Timberwolves, too. After Game 2, Anthony Edwards addressed Gobert directly: "I just laugh," he said. "That's all I can do." Edwards spelled out his plan with sharper language: "I told [Gobert] we ain't bringing no double-team," and, "You gonna guard [Jokic] one-on-one. Stop fouling. Stop going for the reach-in. Because he's going to flop. They're going to call the foul. Play him straight up."
That instruction is the tension in this series: Minnesota must choose between staying home on Jokic and allowing role players more space, or sending help and risking the one-on-one matchups Edwards warned against. The numbers give Minnesota an opening — Jokic’s reduced on-ball role and Denver’s dip in offensive rating with him on the floor suggest the Nuggets are not operating at their regular-season level — but the counterweight is Jokic’s proven ability to wreck games whether he touches the ball directly or not, as his MVP night demonstrated.
For Game 3 the question is practical: can Gobert execute Edwards’s plan — deny the ball, avoid reach-in fouls and remain a disruptive rim presence — long enough to force Denver into uncomfortable reads? If he can, Minnesota has a path to blunt Denver’s engine without collapsing into double teams. If he cannot, Jokic’s efficiency and the Nuggets’ plus-10 when he’s on the court will steer the series back toward Denver.
What happens next is simple and immediate: Game 3 on Thursday night will reveal whether Gobert’s on-ball discipline and the Timberwolves’ scheme are durable. The series remains balanced at 1-1, but the outcome of this game will likely tell whether Jokic returns to MVP-caliber control or whether Minnesota’s adjustments have finally found a way to slow him without sacrificing its own offense.
