Nashville and much of Middle Tennessee are in for another round of unsettled weather Tuesday night, after a bumpy Monday night and early Tuesday brought storms, flooding and damage to the region. The bulk of Tuesday is expected to stay dry, but storm chances ramp up late in the day as another system moves through.
The Storm Prediction Center has placed most of the WLKY viewing area, including the Metro, under a marginal risk for severe storms, while the far southern counties are in a slight risk. For Tuesday night, the main threats are gusty winds and large hail, and a brief spin-up tornado cannot be ruled out in the tornado Nashville forecast.
That matters because the weather is not settling down after one round of storms. Rounds of showers and storms are expected over the next few days, which means the region has to keep watching the sky even after the worst of Tuesday’s daytime hours pass. The setup also carries a clear division in risk, with the most severe weather threat focused farther south.
Behind the system, cooler and drier air will move into the Ohio Valley, setting up a noticeable change by the end of the week. Thurby, Oaks and Derby are expected to run below normal, with highs only in the 50s and 60s. That is a sharp drop from the storm threat early in the week to a much cooler stretch for the race weekend.
The hard part for forecasters is that the dry window on Tuesday may make the evening threat easier to underestimate. The day will not look stormy for hours, then the next round arrives late, with the possibility of wind, hail and a quick tornado spin-up before the system exits and the cooler air settles in.
