Jeremiah Estrada was placed on the injured list with elbow tendinitis just under two weeks ago and, while he has been playing catch, the club has given him no timetable to return.
Estrada, who joined the San Diego Padres before the 2024 season, has tried to dampen alarm: he said the discomfort in his elbow has largely dissipated and he feels stronger. The Padres are encouraged, but there is no timetable for his return, Kevin Acee wrote.
That optimism sits beside some stark numbers. Before going on the injured list this season Estrada posted a 5.14 ERA over seven innings. His fastball velocity has dipped from 97.9 mph last year to 95.0 mph this year. Those figures contrast with his recent production: in 2024 he posted a 2.95 ERA with 94 strikeouts over 61 innings, and last season he posted a 3.45 ERA with 108 strikeouts across 73 innings.
The raw timeline is simple: Estrada joined the club before 2024, followed a breakout run in which he struck out hitters at a high rate, then began this campaign with a small sample of tougher results and the unexpected elbow issue. He has been throwing and working through the injury, and he has been careful: Estrada said he was not trying to rush anything in his recovery.
For the Padres, the immediate consequence is roster inconvenience and strategic uncertainty. The team is handling injuries to multiple pitchers on its staff this season, and a left-handed arm that has shown swing-and-miss stuff in recent years is suddenly on hold. The club can take comfort from Estrada’s report of reduced discomfort, but consolation does not replace availability.
The friction in this story is not just medical caution versus playing desire; it is the mismatch between short-term signs and longer-term questions. Estrada says he feels stronger and has been allowed to play catch, yet the measurable decline in average fastball speed and the 5.14 ERA over seven innings before the IL suggest the issue is not purely one of confidence. The Padres are encouraged, Acee wrote, but encouragement does not mean a date on the calendar.
What matters next is clear and narrow: will the recovery bring back Estrada’s previous velocity and command? If his fastball can climb back toward the upper-90s and his strikeout rates approach the levels he showed over 61 and 73-inning stretches in recent years, the club gains a reclamation. If velocity and effectiveness do not follow the feeling of strength, the team faces tougher choices about role, workload and roster makeup as the season progresses.
For now, Estrada remains the same player who joined the organization before 2024 and produced high strikeout totals and sub-3.00 ERA work in one recent season; he is also the pitcher who, this year, showed a velocity dip and a small but worrying 5.14 ERA before being shut down. He is throwing and sounding cautiously optimistic. The single question that will decide his fate is whether that optimism translates into the kind of measured, physical recovery that restores the pitch velocity and swing-and-miss profile the Padres relied on when they added him.
