The latest james talarico texas senate poll puts Texas state legislator James Talarico ahead of both John Cornyn and Ken Paxton in separate hypothetical Senate matchups. Texas Public Opinion Research surveyed 1,865 likely voters and found Talarico leading Cornyn 44% to 41% and Paxton 46% to 41%.
The numbers give Talarico a three-point edge over Cornyn and a five-point edge over Paxton. They also place a Democrat ahead of two Republicans who are central to the race: Cornyn, who has served in the Senate since 2002, and Paxton, the Texas attorney general who is scheduled to face Cornyn in a primary runoff on 26 May.
Texas Public Opinion Research
TPOR’s findings point to the voter groups powering Talarico’s standing. The poll said his lead over both Republicans is heavily driven by support from Black, Latino and college-educated voters, and that he holds large margins among moderate and independent voters.
That combination gives him a different coalition from either Republican in the survey. Cornyn enters the runoff with Paxton after four consecutive terms in the Senate, while Paxton continues to seek the party’s nomination after his impeachment in 2023 over misconduct charges.
John Cornyn and Ken Paxton
Donald Trump has not endorsed either Cornyn or Paxton. He described both men as “electable” and “great people,” leaving the runoff without the backing both candidates have sought.
For Cornyn, the poll tests the standing of a senator who has held the seat for more than two decades. For Paxton, it measures a candidate who remains in the race despite the impeachment that followed the 2023 misconduct charges.
Senate control fight
The survey lands while Republicans hold a 53-47 advantage in the 100-seat Senate. Democrats need a net gain of four seats in November to retake control, so a Texas race that shows a Democrat ahead of both possible Republican nominees gives the party a path it cannot ignore.
The immediate question is whether the 26 May runoff will produce the Republican nominee Talarico would face if he keeps the poll’s level of support. For now, TPOR’s numbers show him running ahead of both Republican options in a state that could shape the Senate balance next year.
