James Harden’s 33% Game 5 trend looms over Cavaliers

james harden arrives at Game 5 with a recent playoff pattern that Cleveland cannot ignore. In his last four Game 5s when a series was tied 2-2, he has shot 33% and averaged 12 points, a line that hangs over the Cavaliers as the series returns to Cleveland tied 2-2.

Windhorst on Harden

Brian Windhorst said Harden has carried two competing playoff labels at once. "Harden has this reputation for not delivering in big moments in the playoffs, but he has a reputation for being great in a lot of playoff games" — Brian Windhorst (On ESPNCleveland’s segment 5 Good Minutes With Windy)

Windhorst added that the numbers in this spot have backed up the criticism. "Unfortunately, that’s held true. He was great in Games 1 and 2. I’m just going to tell you that in his last four Game 5s when it’s 2-2—and that’s the thing, the guy has played in so many playoff series that the data set is enormous—in his last four times when it’s been 2-2, Game 5, some of them have been at home, some of them have been away, he shot 33% and averaged 12 points."

Raptors defend Cleveland

The Raptors had already found some success against both Donovan Mitchell and Harden before Game 5. In Games 3 and 4, both Cavaliers players missed shots and turned the ball over, and Toronto kept finding ways to stay alive despite offensive limitations and the absence of Immanuel Quickley.

That leaves Cleveland with a clean read on the danger point. Windhorst said Harden was great in Games 1 and 2 and has also produced 30-point games in this same 2-2 Game 5 setting in previous seasons, but a bad night now would tilt the door toward Toronto stealing Game 5 in Cleveland.