Accuweather forecasts 2026 heat, tornadoes, derechos, flash floods
Accuweather’s latest outlook says summer 2026 will bring heat and severe weather across much of the lower 48, with almost nowhere expected to stay cool by historical standards. The forecast points to heat waves and drought in the West and Northwest, while the Plains, Midwest, Southwest and Texas face different storm risks as the season unfolds.
Paul Pastelok, a long-range expert, said the Northeast could see a “late surge of heat and higher humidity.” He also said the number of tornadoes can run near to above average in the Plains and Midwest, before activity may calm down in August and be replaced by derechos.
West, Northwest, and the Great Basin
Brandon Buckingham, a meteorologist, warned that wildfires in the Great Basin could be “destructive” this year. Accuweather’s outlook ties that threat to heat waves and drought across the West and Northwest, where dry conditions can leave large areas exposed as summer advances.
The forecast adds another hazard on top of the heat. The North American monsoon is expected to arrive early in June, and Accuweather says that early arrival could bring dry lightning that starts fires instead of putting them out.
Plains, Midwest, and Northeast
Pastelok said the Plains and Midwest could see tornado counts near to above average. He added that August may bring a shift away from tornado activity and toward derechos, which the outlook says can produce 100-mph winds.
For the Northeast, Pastelok’s “late surge of heat and higher humidity” suggests the warmest stretch may come later in the season rather than at the start. That leaves the region exposed to a hotter second half of summer after the broader forecast already puts most of the lower 48 in the warm category.
Texas Hill Country and El Niño
The Southwest and Texas face frequent flash flood events this summer, according to Pastelok, and the Texas Hill Country is still reeling from the $22 billion flood disaster of 2025. The forecast also says the strengthening El Niño could escalate into a rare super version by the end of the year, a setup that is expected to keep Atlantic hurricanes at bay.
For readers in the regions named in the outlook, the practical takeaway is a summer with more than one hazard at once: fire weather in the West, stronger storm potential in the middle of the country, and repeated flood threats in parts of the Southwest and Texas. That combination makes the early June monsoon, the August storm shift, and the late-year El Niño watch the three developments most likely to shape the season ahead.
