Analysts See 800,000 Off-Lease EVs Hitting Ev Dealerships by 2028
Analysts expect roughly 800,000 off-lease EVs to reach the used market by 2028, sending a large wave of three-year-old vehicles toward the ev dealership lot. The flow comes as two- and three-year lease contracts expire and automakers take back cars that may fetch far less than expected.
Some analysts put the average loss at about $10,000 per vehicle, which would total nearly $8 billion if those estimates hold. Leasing helped drive EV adoption with low monthly payments, tax incentives and buyer concern over battery longevity, but the return of leased vehicles now puts that same channel under pressure.
Lease returns and used values
The vehicles returning now were often leased when manufacturers expected stronger residual values than many of them may command today. Industry analysts say the used market is being hit by a mismatch between those earlier forecasts and current prices.
That gap is wider for electric cars than for gas-powered models of similar age. A three-year-old EV can be a very different product from one built today, because newer models often offer better range, faster charging speeds, improved software and more advanced battery tech.
Tesla price cuts
Tesla’s aggressive price cuts also helped push used values lower. When new EV prices drop suddenly, used examples often take a bigger hit, and that has made the return stream from leases harder for manufacturers to absorb.
The result is a market that could put more affordable used EVs within reach of buyers while leaving automakers with smaller returns on the vehicles they financed years earlier. For shoppers, the coming supply increase points to more options on dealer lots; for manufacturers, the immediate problem is how much value remains when those leases end.
2028 EV outlook
By 2028, the scale of the lease rollover is what stands out: about 800,000 vehicles entering the used market at once is enough to shape pricing across the segment. The next pressure point is whether those off-lease cars find buyers quickly enough to limit losses on the back end of the lease cycle.
